Ligue 1
LOSC Lille - Lorient
03/08/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.8
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
LOSC Lille
Lorient
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
28%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Matchup advantage: Lille's solid home offense (1.58 goals) faces Lorient's vulnerable away defense (2.86 goals conceded)
- Current form: Lille is on a run of 3 consecutive wins, while Lorient recently achieved 2 draws
- Historical dominance: Lille has played a dominant role in recent head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
- Lorient's away defense concedes an average of 2.86 goals per game
- Lille's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals, below the season average of 1.6 goals
Overview
LOSC Lille (6th place, 40 points) host Lorient (10th place, 33 points) at Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Ligue 1 match on March 8, 2026, 5:15 PM
Lille aims to solidify a European qualification spot, while Lorient seeks to improve its mid-table position
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 47%
Form
LOSC Lille's form across all competitions is DLWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Lille achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
They have 3 consecutive wins recently
Lorient's form across all competitions is WLWDD
Lorient achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
They have 2 consecutive draws recently
LOSC Lille's goal production is stagnant at 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.6 goals
Lorient is currently scoring more with 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.5 goals
Statistics
LOSC Lille's season average is 1.54 goals scored per game and 1.29 goals conceded
Lille kept 8 clean sheets this season
In home games, Lille averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded
Lorient's season average is 1.42 goals scored per game and 1.58 goals conceded
Lorient kept 5 clean sheets this season
In away games, Lorient averages 1.43 goals scored and 2.86 goals conceded
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, an average of 2.0 total goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games
The model predicts 1.62 expected home goals and 1.14 expected away goals
A 'both teams to score' bet is rated at 56%
Over 2.5 goals are calculated at 52%
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, LOSC Lille won 3 times and Lorient won 2 times, with no draws
Lille scored 15 goals in these matches, while Lorient scored 8 goals
The last encounter took place on August 30, 2025, with Lorient winning 7:1
LOSC Lille has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For LOSC Lille, Olivier Giroud (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.85) with stable form, FĂ©lix Correia (3 goals, 5 assists, Avg 6.94) with stable form, and HĂ„kon Arnar Haraldsson (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.99) with declining form are key players
Not nominated: Romain Perraud (2G/3A)
For Lorient, Bamba Dieng (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg 7.04) with stable form, Théo Le Bris (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg 6.91) with rising form, and Jean-Victor Makengo (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg 6.95) with rising form are key players
Not nominated: Pablo Pagis (8G/1A)
Goalkeepers
LOSC Lille's goalkeeper is Berke Ăzer
Lille has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Lorient's goalkeeper is Yvon Mvogo
Lorient has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
LOSC Lille shows an average home offense of 1.58 goals and a defense of 1.08 goals conceded
Lorient scores an average of 1.43 goals away and concedes 2.86 goals
Stade Pierre-Mauroy has a record of averaging 2.0 goals per game
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 47%