Match report →
Getafe – Celta de Vigo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.25
Total xG
1.96
Celta de Vigo
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Ferran Jutglà on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Williot Swedberg on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Javi Rueda on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Sergio Carreira on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Getafe show strong defensive stability at home, conceding an average of just 0.76 goals per home match
- Celta de Vigo's goalscoring has stalled, averaging only 0.67 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.47
- Mathematical analysis favors Getafe with a 48% probability of a home win
Risks
- Ferran Jutglà, Williot Swedberg, Javi Rueda, Sergio Carreira are missing, with only 56% of attacking threat available
- Both teams averaged low attacking threat recently with under 3 shots on target per match (Getafe 2.6, Celta 2.4)
- Celta de Vigo have a shorter recovery window with only 4 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Getafe48%
Draw33%
Celta de Vigo19%
Double chance
Getafe or draw81%
Celta de Vigo or draw52%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.560%
Under 1.540%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
0:0
16%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Getafe 5-3-2 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-3
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 24 Z. Romero
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 23 O. Mangala
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 19 E. Ünal
- 10 M. Satriano
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 2 C. Starfelt
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 8 M. Román González
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 16 H. Sotos
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 20 I. Monzón
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 30 ?. López
- 27 E. Drammeh
- 31 M. Yassine Hamdoune
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 7 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
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