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Espanyol – Sevilla1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Espanyol
1.35
Total xG
2.24
Sevilla
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Espanyol | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Oso not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Peque Fernández on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 71% of goal output missing (only 37% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Sevilla are highly weakened with only 37% of their usual starting strength available as Oso and Peque Fernández are missing
- Espanyol show improved efficiency scoring an average of 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- The mathematical model favors Espanyol with a 46% win probability
Risks
- Sevilla concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
- Espanyol recently suffered two consecutive defeats in the league
All probabilities
Result
Espanyol46%
Draw31%
Sevilla23%
Double chance
Espanyol or draw77%
Sevilla or draw54%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Espanyol: 3.6 cards per game (39 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Espanyol: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Sevilla: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Espanyol 4-2-3-1 · Sevilla 4-3-3
Espanyol
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 24 T. Dolan
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 12 A. Sangante
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 6 L. Agoume
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 9 R. Ure
- 21 C. Ejuke
Substitutes
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 5 C. Riedel
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 17 J. Carreras Pagès
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 19 L. Stassin
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