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Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruña2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.19
Total xG
1.99
Deportivo La Coruña
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.21 | |
| Attack strength (2.91x league average) | +1.94 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.74 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Georges Mikautadze on the bench (13 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Santi Comesaña on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Santiago Mouriño on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 85% available) |
Key factors
- Villarreal averaged 5.8 shots on target and 55.6% possession in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 44% probability of a home win
- Deportivo La Coruña's goal scoring has slowed down to 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.9
Risks
- Deportivo La Coruña averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- No historical head-to-head matches available in the dataset
- Villarreal are still without a win after 3 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal44%
Draw34%
Deportivo La Coruña23%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw77%
Deportivo La Coruña or draw56%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
15%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Villarreal: 68% of all goals in the first half (15 of 22, last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-4-2 · Deportivo La Coruña 4-4-2
Villarreal
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 3 A. Freeman
- 2 L. Costa
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 19 N. Pépé
- 24 N. Saliba
- 18 P. Gueye
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
- 7 P. Aubameyang
Substitutes
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 6 M. Casadó Torras
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 9 Z. Eddahchouri
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 22 B. Ede
- 34 T. Gijselhart
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