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La Liga

Villarreal - Deportivo La Coruña

09/05/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Villarreal
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Deportivo La Coruña
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

15%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VILDLC

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.74
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03
Georges Mikautadze on the bench (13 goals, 6 assists)
Santi Comesaña on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Santiago Mouriño on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Deportivo La Coruña

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.21
Attack strength (2.91x league average)
+1.94
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Villarreal: 68% of all goals in the first half (15 of 22, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

34%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Villarreal averaged 5.8 shots on target and 55.6% possession in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 44% probability of a home win
  • Deportivo La Coruña's goal scoring has slowed down to 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.9
Risk Factors
  • Deportivo La Coruña averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • No historical head-to-head matches available in the dataset
  • Villarreal are still without a win after 3 matches this season
Overview

Villarreal host Deportivo La Coruña at the Estadio de la Cerámica

La Liga match on September 5, 2026, 9:00 PM

Villarreal currently sit in 15th place with 2 points

Deportivo La Coruña arrive in 9th place with 5 points

The home side search for their first league victory of the season

Form

Villarreal show a form of LWDDL

Their last match ended in a 0-1 defeat against Deportivo Alavés

Deportivo La Coruña visit with a form of WLDDW

The visitors won 3-1 against Valencia in their last outing

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Villarreal average 1.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game

Their home stats show a strong 1.92 goals scored and only 0.76 conceded per game

Deportivo La Coruña concede an average of just 0.25 goals per away game

The visitors average 2.00 goals scored per game this season

Both teams scored in 24 out of 38 matches for the home side

Key Players

Gerard Moreno is a key attacker for Villarreal with 10 goals this season

Nicolas Pépé impresses with 8 goals and 8 assists this season

Ayoze Pérez has contributed 5 goals and 4 assists

Georges Mikautadze, Santi Comesaña, and Santiago Mouriño are not in the squad

Limited data available for Deportivo La Coruña players

Goalkeepers

Luiz Júnior starts in goal for Villarreal with a season average rating of 6.93

Villarreal have kept 8 clean sheets so far this season

Leo Román is the goalkeeper for Deportivo La Coruña

The visitors have recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio de la Cerámica

Stadium statistics show high-scoring matches with an average of 4.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of those home games

All 5 matches at this venue ended with over 2.5 goals

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