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La Liga

Elche - Real Sociedad

09/07/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Elche
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Real Sociedad
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ELCRS

Elche

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.20
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Marc Aguado on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
David Affengruber not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

Real Sociedad

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.13
Orri Óskarsson on the bench (9 goals, 0 assists)
Ander Barrenetxea on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists)
Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Beñat Turrientes on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Jon MartĂ­n on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical trend: The model calculates a 45% probability of a home victory for Elche
  • Tactical activity: Real Sociedad averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Goal drought: According to advancedStats both Elche (1.0) and Real Sociedad (1.0) are currently struggling to score compared to their season averages
Risk Factors
  • Squad weakness for Elche: Marc Aguado and David Affengruber are missing, leaving only 59% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Away vulnerability: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game
Overview

Elche versus Real Sociedad in La Liga

Match on September 7, 2026, 9:30 PM at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

Elche is in 19th place with 1 point while Real Sociedad is 14th with 4 points

Both teams look to bounce back from a slow start to the season

Form

Elche's form is WDDLL across all competitions with a recent loss against Racing Santander

Real Sociedad holds a form of DLLWD with a recent draw against Celta de Vigo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

According to advancedStats both teams show a negative form trend

Statistics

Elche scored 1.29 goals per game this season while conceding 1.50

Real Sociedad averaged 1.55 goals and conceded 1.61 goals

Elche recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Real Sociedad achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in recent years

No home wins for Elche and 1 away win for Real Sociedad with 1 draw

The last encounter ended 3-1 for Real Sociedad on February 7, 2026

Key Players

GermĂĄn Valera has recorded 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Pedro Bigas contributes 1 goal and 3 assists with a rating of 6.87

MatĂ­as Dituro stands out with a seasonal average rating of 7.09

Mikel Oyarzabal is the biggest threat with 15 goals and 4 assists

Carlos Soler has achieved 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Sergio GĂłmez shines with 6 assists and a rating of 6.93

Not in the lineup for the visitors: Orri Óskarsson (9 goals), Ander Barrenetxea (3 goals, 5 assists), and Takefusa Kubo (2 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Dituro has featured in 22 games this season

Unai Marrero played in only 1 match so far

Elche achieved 8 clean sheets while Real Sociedad has 3 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage is visible in Elche's home record with only 0.83 goals conceded per game

The Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero averages 2.8 goals per match

The game will be played on grass

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