Match report →
Elche – Real Sociedad2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Elche
1.56
Total xG
2.71
Real Sociedad
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elche | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Marc Aguado on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Affengruber not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Orri Óskarsson on the bench (9 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ander Barrenetxea on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Beñat Turrientes on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jon Martín on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical trend: The model calculates a 45% probability of a home victory for Elche
- Tactical activity: Real Sociedad averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Goal drought: According to advancedStats both Elche (1.0) and Real Sociedad (1.0) are currently struggling to score compared to their season averages
Risks
- Squad weakness for Elche: Marc Aguado and David Affengruber are missing, leaving only 59% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Away vulnerability: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Elche45%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad27%
Double chance
Elche or draw73%
Real Sociedad or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)
- Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
- Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Elche 3-5-2 · Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 23 V. Chust García
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
Real Sociedad
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 24 L. Sučić
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 18 T. Lemar
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 3 R. Revivo
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 24 A. Osorio
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →