Match report →
Real Betis – Real Madrid1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
1.27
Total xG
2.80
Real Madrid
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Rodrigo Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Carreras on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Real Madrid is in exceptional form with 5 consecutive wins, averaging 3.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.2
- Real Madrid's attack has been highly clinical, recently averaging 7.2 shots on target per match
- Real Madrid holds the historical upper hand with 2 wins from their last 4 direct encounters against Real Betis
Risks
- Real Betis showed defensive vulnerabilities by conceding 5 goals in their last game against Levante
- Real Betis' goal production has dried up recently, dropping to 1.4 goals per match compared to their 1.8 season average
- Real Madrid's tactical balance in midfield is slightly affected by the injury of A. Tchouaméni
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis30%
Draw28%
Real Madrid42%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw58%
Real Madrid or draw70%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Real Madrid: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 4 Natan
- 11 F. García Torres
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 14 I. Losada Aragunde
- 16 D. Gómez
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 19 T. Parrott
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 40 A. de Pablo Casado
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 38 S. Martínez Montero
- 20 B. Silva
- 29 J. Cestero Sancho
- 31 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 33 M. Rivas Lagos
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