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Athletic Club – Atlético de Madrid3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Athletic Club
1.48
Total xG
2.47
Atlético de Madrid
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletic Club | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Gorka Guruzeta on the bench (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aitor Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Koke on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Robin Le Normand on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Absence of Gorka Guruzeta weakens Athletic Club's attack with 10 goals and 3 assists
- Athletic Club averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Dominance in direct duels with 4 wins for Atlético de Madrid from the last 5 meetings
Risks
- Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away match
- Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.53 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Athletic Club47%
Draw29%
Atlético de Madrid24%
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw76%
Atlético de Madrid or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)
- Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')
- Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)
Lineups
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 7 K. Lee
- 10 A. Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 44 S. Sánchez Camilo
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 30 I. Monreal Agundez
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 21 C. Romero
- 15 J. David
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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