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La Liga

Athletic Club - Atlético de Madrid

09/05/2026, 02:15 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Atlético de Madrid
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ACADM

Athletic Club

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Gorka Guruzeta on the bench (10 goals, 3 assists)
Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Aitor Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Atlético de Madrid

Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Koke  on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Robin Le Normand on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

  • 4
    Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Absence of Gorka Guruzeta weakens Athletic Club's attack with 10 goals and 3 assists
  • Athletic Club averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Dominance in direct duels with 4 wins for Atlético de Madrid from the last 5 meetings
Risk Factors
  • Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away match
  • Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.53 goals per game this season
Overview

Athletic Club (13th place, 3 points) host Atlético de Madrid (4th place, 7 points) at San Mamés Barria

La Liga match on September 5, 2026, 4:15 PM

The home side looks to improve their start, while the visitors aim to stay near the top

Form

Athletic Club shows a form of DLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with a recent 2-0 win against Celta de Vigo

Atlético de Madrid travels with a form of WLWDW after a recent 3-1 win against Sevilla

Statistics

Athletic Club scores 1.13 goals and concedes 1.53 on average per game this season

Atlético de Madrid averages 1.63 goals scored and 1.16 conceded

Away from home, Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Out of the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético de Madrid won 4 and Athletic Club won 1

The last meeting ended in a 3-2 win for Atlético de Madrid on April 25, 2026

The total goal difference in these direct duels is 8-3 in favor of the away side

Key Players

Nico Williams contributes 6 goals and 3 assists for Athletic Club, while Robert Navarro adds 6 goals and 1 assist

Oihan Sancet supports Athletic Club's offense with 4 goals so far this season

For Atlético de Madrid, Giuliano Simeone registers 4 goals and 6 assists, Álex Baena has 2 goals and 3 assists, and Ademola Lookman has 4 goals

Goalkeepers

Unai Simón starts for Athletic Club with an average rating of 6.78

Jan Oblak played 30 games for Atlético de Madrid with a 6.96 rating and kept 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Athletic Club concedes 1.11 goals on average at home

Matches on the grass of San Mamés Barria average 2.2 total goals

The mathematical model calculates a 47% probability for a home win

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