Match report →
Sevilla – Valencia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sevilla
1.22
Total xG
2.31
Valencia
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sevilla | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Oso not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Peque Fernández on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Guido Rodríguez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical models favor Sevilla as slight contenders with a 38% home win probability
- Both sides played highly counter-oriented recently with low possession and under 4 shots on target per match
- Valencia enters in poor form with three straight losses and has conceded 9 goals in the current campaign
Risks
- Sevilla weakened by the absence of key offensive players including Oso and Peque Fernández
- Valencia's poor defensive record in away matches conceding an average of 2.00 goals
- Both teams field reduced squads with only 69% (Sevilla) and 75% (Valencia) of their usual starting strength
All probabilities
Result
Sevilla37%
Draw32%
Valencia31%
Double chance
Sevilla or draw69%
Valencia or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Sevilla: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Valencia: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Sevilla 4-4-2 · Valencia 4-4-1-1
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 6 L. Agoume
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 19 L. Stassin
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 22 A. Martinez
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 15 A. Dieng
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 39 R. Sato
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
Substitutes
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 23 M. do Nascimento Teixeira
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 10 H. Elliot
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 12 J. de Haas
- 38 J. Durá i Soler
- 33 Aaron Mayol
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