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La Liga

Sevilla - Valencia

09/11/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Valencia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SEVVAL

Sevilla

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Oso not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Peque Fernández on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

Valencia

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Guido Rodríguez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Sevilla: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sevilla: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 5
    Valencia: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical models favor Sevilla as slight contenders with a 38% home win probability
  • Both sides played highly counter-oriented recently with low possession and under 4 shots on target per match
  • Valencia enters in poor form with three straight losses and has conceded 9 goals in the current campaign
Risk Factors
  • Sevilla weakened by the absence of key offensive players including Oso and Peque Fernández
  • Valencia's poor defensive record in away matches conceding an average of 2.00 goals
  • Both teams field reduced squads with only 69% (Sevilla) and 75% (Valencia) of their usual starting strength
Overview

Sevilla (7th place, 7 points) host Valencia (20th place, 1 point) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

La Liga match on September 11, 2026, 7:00 PM

The hosts enter this match as favorites against the bottom-placed team

Form

Sevilla with form LWWLD showing two wins and two losses

Valencia in crisis with form WDLLL and three consecutive defeats

The home side secured seven points from their opening four matches

Statistics

Sevilla scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.58 goals

Valencia defense is highly vulnerable conceding 9 goals in 4 league games

Both teams scored in 22 out of 38 matches for Sevilla and 21 for Valencia

Head-to-Head

Historical advantage for Valencia with three wins from the last five meetings

Sevilla failed to win any of these five matches with two draws recorded

The last head-to-head encounter ended in a 0-2 away win for Valencia

Key Players

Isaac Romero with 4 goals this season and a rising form trend for Sevilla

Lucien Agoumé stabilizes the midfield with a solid average rating of 6.83

Javi Guerra guides Valencia's midfield with 4 goals and 6 assists in 36 appearances

Goalkeepers

Odysseas Vlachodimos with 33 appearances and 3 home clean sheets for Sevilla

Stole Dimitrievski made 20 appearances keeping 5 clean sheets in away matches

Influences

Home advantage at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán supports the favorites with avg 1.2 home goals

The venue sees a moderate average of 2.4 goals per match

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