Match report →
Real Sociedad – Atlético de Madrid0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.45
Total xG
2.32
Atlético de Madrid
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Koke on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pablo Barrios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 98% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a 49% home win probability for Real Sociedad
- Critical bottleneck for Real Sociedad with only 10% of their seasonal goal threat available in the lineup
- Real Sociedad showed strong offensive metrics recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
Risks
- Atlético de Madrid suffer from away weakness, conceding an average of 1.93 goals per away game
- Real Sociedad must compensate for the suspension of defender J. Martín Vicente
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad49%
Draw30%
Atlético de Madrid21%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw79%
Atlético de Madrid or draw51%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)
- Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Real Sociedad: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 3-4-2-1
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 24 L. Sučić
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 21 C. Romero
- 17 D. Hancko
- 20 G. Simeone
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 K. Lee
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 11 A. Lookman
Substitutes
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 15 J. David
- 25 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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