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La Liga

Real Sociedad - Atlético de Madrid

09/13/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Atlético de Madrid
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RSADM

Real Sociedad

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.11
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Atlético de Madrid

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Koke  on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Pablo Barrios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 98% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Real Sociedad: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a 49% home win probability for Real Sociedad
  • Critical bottleneck for Real Sociedad with only 10% of their seasonal goal threat available in the lineup
  • Real Sociedad showed strong offensive metrics recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Atlético de Madrid suffer from away weakness, conceding an average of 1.93 goals per away game
  • Real Sociedad must compensate for the suspension of defender J. Martín Vicente
Overview

Real Sociedad host Atlético de Madrid at the Anoeta Stadium

La Liga match on September 13, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are currently tied on 7 points in the middle of the table

Real Sociedad sit in 11th place, while Atlético de Madrid are in 9th position

An important clash to keep pace with the European spots

Form

Real Sociedad show mixed form with a record of LLWDW

Their last match resulted in a 3-2 win against Elche

Atlético de Madrid hold a form curve of WDWLL

The visitors recently suffered two consecutive defeats against Liverpool and Athletic Club

Statistics

Real Sociedad scored 59 goals and conceded 61 overall this season

At home, they average 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per match

Atlético de Madrid scored 62 goals and conceded 44 in total

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.93 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad registered no home wins

Atlético de Madrid secured 2 wins alongside 3 draws

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on April 18, 2026

The overall goal difference stands at 11-6 in favor of Atlético de Madrid

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal provided 2 assists this season with an average rating of 6.72

Luka Sucic scored 2 goals so far with a rating of 7.08

Álex Baena is in strong form with 2 goals and 1 assist with a 7.32 rating

Goalkeepers

Álex Remiro is in goal for Real Sociedad and boasts a strong seasonal rating of 7.26

Jan Oblak guards the net for Atlético de Madrid with an average rating of 6.96 in 30 appearances

Influences

Real Sociedad benefit from home advantage at the Anoeta Stadium on natural grass

The venue history shows an average of 3.0 goals per game with a 60% both teams to score rate

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