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La Liga

Villarreal - Real Betis

09/14/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Villarreal
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Real Betis
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VILRB

Villarreal

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Alberto Moleiro on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists)
Ayoze PĂ©rez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)

Real Betis

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Antony on the bench (8 goals, 6 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (15 points lost)

  • 2
    Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Villarreal averaged 6.0 shots on target and 59% possession in their recent matches
  • Key offensive players for Villarreal like Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists) and Ayoze PĂ©rez (5 goals, 4 assists) are not in the lineup
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 50% probability of a home win for Villarreal
Risk Factors
  • Real Betis concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away match
  • Villarreal is struggling with form and is winless in their last 5 matches (DDLLL)
  • Real Betis is missing key offensive player Antony (8 goals, 6 assists) from the lineup
Overview

Villarreal (18th place, 2 points) hosts Real Betis (7th place, 9 points) at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica

La Liga match on September 14, 2026, 9:00 PM

While the home side struggles without a win at the bottom, Betis aims to continue their strong start

Form

Villarreal is in a form crisis with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (DDLLL)

The home side has lost their last three matches in a row

Real Betis is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss (WWLWW)

The visitors enter this match on the back of two consecutive victories

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Villarreal scores an average of 1.89 goals per match this season

At home, this increases to 1.92 goals while conceding just 0.76

Real Betis averages 1.55 goals but concedes 1.81 on the road

Matches at this venue averaged a high 5.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in all of them

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 1, Real Betis won 2, and 1 ended in a draw

The overall goal ratio stands at 5:7

Their last meeting on January 17, 2026, ended in a 2-0 away win for Real Betis

Real Betis has been dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

Georges Mikautadze (13 goals, 6 assists), Nicolas Pépé (8 goals, 8 assists), and Gerard Moreno (10 goals) lead the home attack

For the visitors, Abde Ezzalzouli (10 goals, 8 assists), Pablo Fornals (9 goals, 6 assists), and Cucho HernĂĄndez (11 goals, 3 assists) are the key offensive figures

Goalkeepers

PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi starts in goal for Villarreal, whose team has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Real Betis features Álvaro Valles, who has contributed to 10 clean sheets so far

Influences

Villarreal's strong home advantage is reflected in a solid defense conceding just 0.76 goals per home game

Furthermore, matches on the grass of the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica average 5.0 goals per game, promising spectacular encounters

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