Match report →
Villarreal – Real Betis1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.72
Total xG
2.84
Real Betis
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Alberto Moleiro on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ayoze Pérez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Antony on the bench (8 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Villarreal averaged 6.0 shots on target and 59% possession in their recent matches
- Key offensive players for Villarreal like Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists) and Ayoze Pérez (5 goals, 4 assists) are not in the lineup
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 50% probability of a home win for Villarreal
Risks
- Real Betis concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away match
- Villarreal is struggling with form and is winless in their last 5 matches (DDLLL)
- Real Betis is missing key offensive player Antony (8 goals, 6 assists) from the lineup
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal50%
Draw27%
Real Betis24%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw76%
Real Betis or draw50%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (15 points lost)
- Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Villarreal: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-4-2 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 19 N. Pépé
- 18 P. Gueye
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 4 Natan
- 11 F. García Torres
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
Substitutes
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 24 N. Saliba
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
- 14 I. Losada Aragunde
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 16 D. Gómez
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 19 T. Parrott
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
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