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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Málaga

09/13/2026, 12:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Málaga
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CDVMÁL

Celta de Vigo

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.73
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.38
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.24
Full strength squad available

Málaga

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.15

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.46
+0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/7 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Offensive slump: Celta's recent scoring rate of 0.67 goals is well below their season average of 1.39
  • Tactical sterility: Celta averaged 56% possession recently but managed only 2.4 shots on target per game
  • Missing squad impact: Only 4% of Celta's seasonal goal contribution is actively available in this lineup
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and Málaga squad statistics
  • Lack of offensive threat: Málaga averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Defensive struggles: Málaga conceded an average of 2.25 goals in their recent fixtures
Overview

Celta de Vigo (16th place, 3 points) host Málaga (18th place, 2 points) at the Estadio de Balaídos

La Liga match on September 13, 2026, 2:00 PM

The mathematical model predicts 1.37 goals for the hosts and 0.93 goals for the visitors

Form

Celta de Vigo's recent form is DLLDD

The hosts recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Málaga travel with a form of LLDLD

The visitors registered 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats over their last 5 games

Statistics

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 1.26 goals last season

At home, Celta averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Málaga averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded so far this season

Celta's home games had a BTTS rate of 60% based on recent venue history

Key Players

Miguel Román leads the midfield with a rating of 7.03 and 1 assist

Marcos Alonso solidifies the defense with an average rating of 7.04

Goalkeeper Ionuț Radu has maintained a stable rating of 7.03

For Málaga, goalkeeper Alfonso Herrero serves as a key starting player

Goalkeepers

Ionuț Radu starts for Celta de Vigo with a season rating of 7.03

Alfonso Herrero starts for Málaga but is yet to record a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio de Balaídos

Recent matches at this venue averaged 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the historical matches at this stadium

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