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Celta de Vigo – Málaga1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.37
Total xG
2.30
Málaga
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive slump: Celta's recent scoring rate of 0.67 goals is well below their season average of 1.39
- Tactical sterility: Celta averaged 56% possession recently but managed only 2.4 shots on target per game
- Missing squad impact: Only 4% of Celta's seasonal goal contribution is actively available in this lineup
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and Málaga squad statistics
- Lack of offensive threat: Málaga averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive struggles: Málaga conceded an average of 2.25 goals in their recent fixtures
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo45%
Draw31%
Málaga24%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw76%
Málaga or draw55%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Málaga 4-1-4-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 8 M. Román González
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 16 H. Sotos
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 2 C. Starfelt
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
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