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Ligue 1

Nice - Rennes

03/08/2026, 04:15 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Nice
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Rennes
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NICREN

Nice

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Elye Wahi not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

Rennes

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.34
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Breel Embolo on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

28%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Current Form: Rennes is on a 3-game winning streak, while Nice is winless in 5 matches
  • League Position: Rennes is in 7th place, significantly ahead of Nice in 15th place
  • Mathematical Prediction: The model forecasts a 43% win probability for Rennes
Risk Factors
  • Rennes concedes an average of 2.56 goals per away game
  • The last head-to-head encounter ended in a 2-1 away win for Nice
Overview

Nice (15th place, 24 points) host Rennes (7th place, 40 points) at the Allianz Riviera. The Ligue 1 match takes place on March 8, 2026, 5:15 PM. Rennes are aiming for a higher position in the upper half of the table, while Nice are trying to move away from the relegation zone.

Form

Nice shows poor form with DDLDL in their last five matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Their last result was a 0-1 loss against Paris

Rennes, on the other hand, is in good form with LLWWW

This means 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses

They have won their last three games, including a 3-1 victory against Paris Saint Germain

Statistics

Nice has scored an average of 1.25 goals per game this season and conceded 1.83 goals

At home, they average 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per home game

Rennes averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Rennes scores 1.67 goals but also concedes 2.56 goals per away game

Nice has kept 3 clean sheets, while Rennes has 7

Both teams scored in 15 of Nice's games and 13 of Rennes' games

At the Allianz Riviera, an average of 3.2 goals per game have been scored, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nice recorded 3 wins and Rennes secured 2 wins

Nice scored a total of 7 goals, while Rennes also scored 7 goals

The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended with a 2-1 away victory for Nice

Key Players

For Nice, Sofiane Diop stands out with 7 goals and 3 assists, with a rising form trend

Mohamed-Ali Cho contributed 4 goals and 3 assists, showing a declining form

Jonathan Clauss has provided 1 goal and 5 assists, and his form is stable

For Rennes, Estéban Lepaul shines with 11 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable

Mousa Tamari has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists, with stable form

Mahdi Camara scored 3 goals and 1 assist, with a declining form trend

Goalkeepers

Nice's goalkeeper, Yehvann Diouf, has an average season rating of 7.07 and 3 clean sheets

Brice Samba, Rennes' goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.83 and recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

The Allianz Riviera is a stadium where an average of 3.2 goals per game are scored

In 80% of the matches, both teams scored, and in 60% of the matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Nice scored 1.21 goals per home game and conceded 1.21 goals at home

Rennes scored 1.67 goals away but conceded a high 2.56 goals per away game

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