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Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
2.38
Total xG
3.39
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.87 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Dean Huijsen on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jorge de Frutos not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Isi Palazón not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad disadvantage for the guests: Jorge de Frutos (10 goals) and Isi Palazón are not available for Rayo Vallecano
- Host's offensive dominance: Real Madrid averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Strong home indicator: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 67%
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Real Madrid have only 4 days of rest compared to their opponent's 7 days
- Vulnerable away defense: Rayo Vallecano concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid67%
Draw20%
Rayo Vallecano13%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw87%
Rayo Vallecano or draw33%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Real Madrid: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Real Madrid: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Rayo Vallecano with Unai López starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/7 games, last 28)
- Rayo Vallecano: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 18 A. Carreras
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 20 B. Silva
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 6 P. Ciss
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
Substitutes
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 2 R. Asencio del Rosario
- 13 A. Lunin
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
- 3 M. Kumbulla
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 28 S. Becerra Gómez
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 30 A. Molina Colorado
- 31 M. Román
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