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La Liga

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Madrid
2.4
Total xG
3.4
Rayo Vallecano
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

8%
What influences the xG?
RMRV

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.87
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.58
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Dean Huijsen on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Rayo Vallecano

Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Jorge de Frutos not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists)
Isi PalazĂłn not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Real Madrid: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 3
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Real Madrid: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano with Unai LĂłpez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/7 games, last 28)

  • 6
    Rayo Vallecano: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

20%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

33%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Squad disadvantage for the guests: Jorge de Frutos (10 goals) and Isi PalazĂłn are not available for Rayo Vallecano
  • Host's offensive dominance: Real Madrid averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Strong home indicator: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 67%
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Real Madrid have only 4 days of rest compared to their opponent's 7 days
  • Vulnerable away defense: Rayo Vallecano concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match this season
Overview

Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on September 12, 2026, 9:00 PM

Real Madrid currently sit in 4th place with 9 points

Rayo Vallecano travel as 14th-placed side with 4 points

Clear favorite role for the hosts in their home stadium

Form

Real Madrid show strong form with a WWWLW record

The team registered four wins and one defeat in their last five matches

Rayo Vallecano display inconsistent form with a LLDLW run

The guests recorded only one win alongside three defeats and one draw

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Real Madrid score an average of 2.03 goals per game this season

In home matches the host's defense concedes only 0.73 goals on average

Rayo Vallecano average 1.08 goals per game

The guest's defense struggles away from home with an average of 1.81 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Real Madrid won twice with 2 draws

Rayo Vallecano are still waiting for an away win in this matchup

The total goal difference stands at 7 to 5 goals in favor of the home team

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 home victory on February 1, 2026

Key Players

Kylian Mbappé shines this season with 25 goals and 5 assists

Vinicius Junior contributed 16 goals and 5 assists so far

Jude Bellingham is also a key performer with 6 goals and 4 assists

For the visitors Sergio Camello stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist

Álvaro García delivered 4 goals and 5 assists so far

Unai LĂłpez added 4 assists to the team's tally this season

Goalkeepers

Thibaut Courtois played 32 matches and contributed to 14 clean sheets

Emil Audero starts in goal for Rayo Vallecano

The visitor's defense secured 12 clean sheets in total this season

Influences

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu saw an average of 4.0 goals in recent matches

The historical rate for over 2.5 goals at this stadium stands at 80%

Both teams scored in 60% of the recent home games at this venue

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