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La Liga

Athletic Club - Elche

09/12/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Elche
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ACELC

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
Gorka Guruzeta not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Aitor Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Elche

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.60
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Pedro Bigas on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Marc Aguado on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
David Affengruber not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 55% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Athletic Club: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

  • 3
    Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Athletic Club: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage for the hosts: Athletic Club comes off two consecutive wins while Elche suffered three straight defeats recently
  • Vulnerable away defense: Elche concedes a very high average of 2.53 goals per away match this season
  • Improved home attack: Athletic Club currently averages 1.6 goals per game, which is higher than their seasonal average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for the visitors: Pedro Bigas, Marc Aguado, and David Affengruber are missing, leaving Elche with only 56% of their usual starting XI strength
  • Passive approach: Athletic Club has been counter-oriented recently, averaging only 41% possession in their past matches
  • Attacking threats from Elche: The visitors averaged a dangerous 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Athletic Club (10th place, 6 points) host Elche (19th place, 1 point) at the San Mamés Barria

La Liga match on September 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

The home side enters the match as favorites against the second-to-last team in the standings

Form

Athletic Club form: LLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Elche form: DDLLL

Athletic Club improved recently with two consecutive wins

Elche suffered three losses in a row at the end of their recent run

Statistics

Athletic Club averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game this season

Elche averages 1.29 goals scored per match overall

The away side concedes an extremely vulnerable average of 2.53 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches overall

1 win for Athletic Club and 1 draw

The last match ended 2-1 in favor of Athletic Club on February 20, 2026

Key Players

Robert Navarro shows rising form with 2 goals in his last 4 matches

Nico Williams has already recorded 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Iñaki Williams contributed 3 goals and 6 assists so far

GermĂĄn Valera is the top contributor for the visitors with 4 goals and 5 assists

Tete Morente recorded 2 assists in his last 4 matches

Buba Sangaré scored 1 goal in his last 4 appearances

Goalkeepers

Unai SimĂłn kept 6 clean sheets so far this season

MatĂ­as Dituro kept 8 clean sheets for Elche this season

SimĂłn shows rising form with a last rating of 7.15

Influences

Home advantage on natural grass at San Mamés Barria

Stadium history shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the previous matches at this venue

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