Match report →
Athletic Club – Elche1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Athletic Club
1.36
Total xG
2.17
Elche
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletic Club | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Gorka Guruzeta not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aitor Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Pedro Bigas on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marc Aguado on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Affengruber not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form advantage for the hosts: Athletic Club comes off two consecutive wins while Elche suffered three straight defeats recently
- Vulnerable away defense: Elche concedes a very high average of 2.53 goals per away match this season
- Improved home attack: Athletic Club currently averages 1.6 goals per game, which is higher than their seasonal average of 1.3
Risks
- Key absences for the visitors: Pedro Bigas, Marc Aguado, and David Affengruber are missing, leaving Elche with only 56% of their usual starting XI strength
- Passive approach: Athletic Club has been counter-oriented recently, averaging only 41% possession in their past matches
- Attacking threats from Elche: The visitors averaged a dangerous 5.2 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Athletic Club48%
Draw31%
Elche21%
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw80%
Elche or draw52%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)
- Athletic Club: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')
- Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Athletic Club: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 · Elche 4-4-1-1
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitutes
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 30 I. Monreal Agundez
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 18 T. Lemar
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 24 A. Osorio
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