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Osasuna – Espanyol0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.58
Total xG
2.69
Espanyol
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Abel Bretones on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Moi Gómez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Aimar Oroz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| E. García Martínez not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense: Osasuna concedes an average of only 0.89 goals per match in front of their own fans
- Tactical focus: Osasuna recently averaged 4.8 shots on target per match
- Offensive uptick: Espanyol currently averages 1.4 goals per game, an improvement compared to their seasonal average of 1.2
Risks
- Osasuna's goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.3 goals recently compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
- Restricted data availability regarding duel statistics in recent matches
- The absence of M. Gómez Bordonado weakens Osasuna's midfield options
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna46%
Draw28%
Espanyol25%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw75%
Espanyol or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Espanyol: 3.5 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Espanyol: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Osasuna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Osasuna 4-2-3-1 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Osasuna
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 14 R. García Santos
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 17 A. Budimir
Espanyol
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 5 C. Riedel
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 24 T. Dolan
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Substitutes
- 20 R. Del Castillo
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 30 A. Bonel Aicua
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 17 J. Carreras Pagès
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 16 V. Drkušić
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