Match report →
Levante – FC Barcelona2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Levante
1.21
Total xG
2.74
FC Barcelona
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Levante | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.4 goals/match) | +0.53 | |
| Rising form (4.4 vs 2.6 season average) | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Iván Romero on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Marc Bernal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 9.0 shots on target with 68% possession in recent matches
- Superb form: League leaders Barcelona enter the match with a streak of 5 consecutive wins
- Offensive discrepancy: Barcelona scores significantly more recently with 4.4 goals per match compared to Levante's 2.0
Risks
- Squad loss: Levante is without Iván Romero, leaving only 76% of their usual goal threat available in the starting eleven
- Defensive vulnerability: Barcelona conceded an average of 1.73 goals per away match this season
- Fatigue factor: FC Barcelona plays this match with only 4 days of rest since their last game
All probabilities
Result
Levante28%
Draw28%
FC Barcelona43%
Double chance
Levante or draw57%
FC Barcelona or draw72%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Levante: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.4 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- Levante: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Levante 4-4-2 · FC Barcelona 4-3-3
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 2 A. Mandi
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 17 V. García Raja
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 10 P. Ratkov
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 24 E. García
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 17 A. Gordon
Substitutes
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 24 T. Fernández
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 23 J. Koundé
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Christensen
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
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