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La Liga

Racing Santander - Deportivo Alavés

09/12/2026, 12:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Racing Santander
1.3
Total xG
3.2
Deportivo Alavés
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSDA

Racing Santander

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.87
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.44
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

Deportivo Alavés

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.21
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.11
Toni Martínez on the bench (14 goals, 3 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Racing Santander: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (18/9 games, last 30)

  • 4
    Racing Santander: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Racing Santander: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 6
    Racing Santander: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

25%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Alavés enters in strong form as league runners-up with a four-match unbeaten run
  • Alavés averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches showing high offensive threat
  • High-scoring history at El Sardinero with an average of 3.5 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Toni Martínez is missing from the Alavés squad, reducing active goal share to 77%
  • Racing conceded three goals in their only home match of the season so far
  • Limited player form data available for Racing Santander
Overview

Racing Santander hosts Deportivo Alavés

La Liga match on September 12, 2026, 12:00 PM

Second-placed Alavés visits thirteenth-placed Santander

Form

Racing Santander shows mixed results (Form: LDLWL)

Their last match ended in a loss against Rayo Vallecano

Deportivo Alavés is unbeaten in their last four matches (Form: LWDWW)

The visitors are coming off a victory against Osasuna

Statistics

Racing Santander averages 2.0 goals scored per match

Deportivo Alavés concedes an average of 1.94 goals in away matches

Matches at El Sardinero average 3.5 total goals

Both teams scored in 75% of the games at this venue

Key Players

Yassir Zabiri has scored three goals in three venue appearances for Racing

Lucas Boyé leads the Alavés attack with 11 goals this season

Mariano Díaz is in rising form with three goals in his last four games

Goalkeepers

Julen Agirrezabala guards the goal for Racing with one clean sheet this season

Antonio Sivera has recorded five clean sheets this season for Alavés

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Racing's home advantage is backed by averaging 2.0 goals scored at home

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