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Racing Santander – Deportivo Alavés2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Santander
1.28
Total xG
3.15
Deportivo Alavés
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Santander | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Toni Martínez on the bench (14 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Alavés enters in strong form as league runners-up with a four-match unbeaten run
- Alavés averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches showing high offensive threat
- High-scoring history at El Sardinero with an average of 3.5 goals per game
Risks
- Toni Martínez is missing from the Alavés squad, reducing active goal share to 77%
- Racing conceded three goals in their only home match of the season so far
- Limited player form data available for Racing Santander
All probabilities
Result
Racing Santander25%
Draw25%
Deportivo Alavés50%
Double chance
Racing Santander or draw50%
Deportivo Alavés or draw75%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Racing Santander: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (18/9 games, last 30)
- Racing Santander: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- Racing Santander: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Racing Santander: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 8 games)
Lineups
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 24 J. Belocian
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 M. Prati
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 15 L. Boyé
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
Substitutes
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 31 L. Gómez Rodríguez
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 2 N. Valentini
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
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