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Getafe – Deportivo La Coruña1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
0.91
Total xG
1.83
Deportivo La Coruña
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack strength (2.08x league average) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Kiko Femenía not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Balanced prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a 36% probability of a draw with nearly identical expected goals of 0.91 to 0.92
- Offensive improvement for Getafe: The hosts averaged 1.2 goals in recent matches, higher than their season average of 1.0
- Struggling attack of the visitors: Deportivo La Coruña's goal production slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Risks
- Getafe averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches
- Limited data available for visitor squad player statistics
All probabilities
Result
Getafe32%
Draw36%
Deportivo La Coruña32%
Double chance
Getafe or draw68%
Deportivo La Coruña or draw68%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.556%
Under 1.544%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
13%
0:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 41% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 17)
Lineups
Getafe 4-4-2 · Deportivo La Coruña 4-1-3-2
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 23 O. Mangala
- 10 M. Satriano
- 19 E. Ünal
- 20 I. Monzón
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 6 M. Casadó Torras
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
- 7 P. Aubameyang
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 16 F. Gracia
- 32 J. Pérez del Amo
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 30 ?. López
- 27 E. Drammeh
- 31 M. Yassine Hamdoune
- 33 Moha Achraf
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 9 Z. Eddahchouri
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 22 B. Ede
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