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La Liga

Getafe - Deportivo La Coruña

09/13/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Getafe
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Deportivo La Coruña
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
GETDLC

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.02
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.54
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Kiko Femenía not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Deportivo La Coruña

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.66
Attack strength (2.08x league average)
+0.36
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Getafe: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Deportivo La Coruña: 41% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

36%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Balanced prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a 36% probability of a draw with nearly identical expected goals of 0.91 to 0.92
  • Offensive improvement for Getafe: The hosts averaged 1.2 goals in recent matches, higher than their season average of 1.0
  • Struggling attack of the visitors: Deportivo La Coruña's goal production slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Risk Factors
  • Getafe averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
  • Limited data available for visitor squad player statistics
Overview

Getafe (14th place, 4 points) host Deportivo La Coruña (6th place, 8 points) at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

La Liga match on September 13, 2026, 6:30 PM

The visitors travel as sixth in the table while the hosts look to close the gap to the midfield

Form

Getafe shows a form of WWLLD with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Deportivo La Coruña enters with a form of LDDWW, including two consecutive wins

The visitors have a slightly more stable overall record with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Getafe scored an average of 0.84 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 1.0 goals

Deportivo La Coruña impresses offensively with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per match

Getafe secured 6 clean sheets in 21 home games with a home goal ratio of 0.86 to 0.76

Deportivo presents an extremely compact away defense, conceding just 0.25 goals per game on average

Goalkeepers

David Soria appeared 38 times for Getafe this season, maintaining a strong rating of 6.94

Leo Román guards the goal for the visitors, holding an average rating of 5.95 in away matches

David Soria enters this matchup with a stable form trend of plus 0.13

Influences

Getafe benefits from an average of 2.4 goals per game in venue history at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Both teams scored in 60% of the historical home matches at the Coliseum

The historical Over 2.5 rate at the stadium stands at a moderate 40%

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