🇪🇸

La Liga

Atlético de Madrid - Osasuna

09/16/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético de Madrid
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Osasuna
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ADMOSA

Atlético de Madrid

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
-0.32
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Giuliano Simeone on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Dávid Hancko on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

Osasuna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Ante Budimir on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 17% available)
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Atlético de Madrid: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')

  • 3
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 4
    Osasuna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Osasuna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 6
    Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

28%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Only 18% of goal threat available without Ante Budimir
  • Osasuna concede an average of 2.36 goals per away game
  • Both teams averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Atlético de Madrid with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Riyadh Air Metropolitano averages only 2.0 goals per game
  • M. Gómez Bordonado is missing in midfield due to injury
Overview

Atlético de Madrid (5th place, 10 points) host Osasuna (11th place, 7 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

La Liga match on September 16, 2026, 7:00 PM

The hosts enter as favorites to keep up with the top teams in the standings

Form

Atlético de Madrid show a form of DWLLW, recently winning 3-0 against Real Sociedad

Osasuna travel with a form of DWWLL, recently losing 0-2 against Espanyol

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The away team also had 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Atlético de Madrid average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

Osasuna concede an average of 2.36 goals and score 1.18 goals per away game

At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per match

The model predicts a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Historically, there have been 4 direct duels between both teams

Atlético de Madrid dominated these encounters with 3 wins, while Osasuna won 1 match

The last encounter on May 12, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for the away side Atlético de Madrid

The overall goal difference stands at 4:3 in favor of Atlético de Madrid

Key Players

Álex Baena scores 0.77 goals per 90 minutes with an average rating of 7.19

Alejandro Grimaldo stands out as a defender with 1 season goal, 1 assist, and a 7.19 rating

Kang-in Lee contributes 1 goal and 1 assist in midfield with a 7.2 average rating

Raúl García has 1 assist this season with an average rating of 6.75

Abel Bretones has a defensive rating of 6.62

Lucas Torró stabilizes the midfield with a 6.68 average rating

Goalkeepers

Jan Oblak guards the goal for Atlético de Madrid with a 6.78 rating and 8 home clean sheets

Aitor Fernández is in goal for Osasuna but has no season appearances in the statistics yet

Atlético recorded 14 clean sheets overall this season, while Osasuna stands at 7 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage clearly favors Atlético de Madrid with only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

Osasuna struggle away from home, conceding 2.36 goals per match

Historically, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per game at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.