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Atlético de Madrid – Osasuna4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.56
Total xG
2.84
Osasuna
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Giuliano Simeone on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dávid Hancko on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Ante Budimir on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 17% available) | ||
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean |
Key factors
- Only 18% of goal threat available without Ante Budimir
- Osasuna concede an average of 2.36 goals per away game
- Both teams averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Atlético de Madrid with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Riyadh Air Metropolitano averages only 2.0 goals per game
- M. Gómez Bordonado is missing in midfield due to injury
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid42%
Draw28%
Osasuna30%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw70%
Osasuna or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Osasuna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Osasuna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Osasuna 5-4-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 21 C. Romero
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 K. Lee
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 15 J. David
- 11 A. Lookman
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 9 R. García de Haro
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 17 D. Hancko
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 20 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 25 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
- 20 R. Del Castillo
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 17 A. Budimir
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 14 R. García Santos
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 30 A. Bonel Aicua
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