Match report →
Real Sociedad – Celta de Vigo0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.65
Total xG
2.53
Celta de Vigo
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Carlos Soler on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luka Sucic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical trend: Real Sociedad recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while Celta de Vigo averaged only 2.4 shots on target
- Squad influence: Carlos Soler and Luka Sucic are missing from Real Sociedad's lineup despite the team maintaining its usual starting XI strength
- Expected value: The model calculates a statistical advantage of 1.65 expected home goals compared to 0.88 goals for Celta de Vigo
Risks
- Offensive weakness of the visitors: Celta de Vigo scored fewer goals recently (0.75) compared to their season average (1.47) and averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable home defense: Real Sociedad conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.51
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad54%
Draw28%
Celta de Vigo19%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw81%
Celta de Vigo or draw46%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Orri Óskarsson: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-3
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 17 S. Gómez
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 14 T. Kubo
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 8 M. Román González
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 19 W. Swedberg
Substitutes
- 22 H. García
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 24 L. Sučić
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 19 M. Sarr
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 4 A. Faye
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
- 2 C. Starfelt
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 16 H. Sotos
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
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