La Liga
Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo
09/03/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Real Sociedad
Celta de Vigo
League
The Lab
- 1Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- 2Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- 3Orri Ăskarsson: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Tactical trend: Real Sociedad recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while Celta de Vigo averaged only 2.4 shots on target
- Squad influence: Carlos Soler and Luka Sucic are missing from Real Sociedad's lineup despite the team maintaining its usual starting XI strength
- Expected value: The model calculates a statistical advantage of 1.65 expected home goals compared to 0.88 goals for Celta de Vigo
Risk Factors
- Offensive weakness of the visitors: Celta de Vigo scored fewer goals recently (0.75) compared to their season average (1.47) and averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable home defense: Real Sociedad conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.51
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview
Real Sociedad (13th place, 3 points) host Celta de Vigo (17th place, 1 point) at the Anoeta Stadium
La Liga match on September 3, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams seek to improve their modest start to the season and move up the table
Form
Real Sociedad won 1 of their last 5 matches (Form: LDLLW)
Most recently they secured a 2-1 home victory against Espanyol
Celta de Vigo is winless in 3 matches with 2 consecutive losses (Form: DWDLL)
The visitors lost their latest home match 0-2 against Athletic Club
Form-Code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.55 goals and concedes 1.61 goals per game this season
Their home record shows an average of 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded
Celta de Vigo averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per match
In their away games the visitors average 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded
Both teams scored in 30 of Real Sociedad's 38 games this season
Head-to-Head
In the past 4 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad recorded 1 win and Celta de Vigo secured 2 wins with 1 draw
The last encounter on January 25, 2026 ended in a 3-1 home victory for Real Sociedad
Overall goals in these matches stand at 4-5 in favor of Celta de Vigo
Key Players
Mikel Oyarzabal leads Real Sociedad's attack with 15 goals and 4 assists this season
Orri Ăskarsson has contributed 9 goals with 0 assists so far
Sergio GĂłmez shines as a playmaker with 6 assists and an average rating of 6.93
For Celta de Vigo Ferran JutglĂ scored 9 goals and made 3 assists this season
Williot Swedberg registered 5 goals and 5 assists
Ilaix Moriba contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in midfield
Goalkeepers
Ălex Remiro guards the goal for the hosts and recorded 3 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.81
For the visitors IonuÈ Radu starts in goal keeping 10 clean sheets with an average rating of 6.89
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at the Anoeta Stadium
In the last 5 home games an average of 4.2 goals per match was scored with an 80% BTTS rate
The mathematical model predicts a 54% probability for a home win with 1.65 expected goals for Real Sociedad