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La Liga

Deportivo La Coruña - Sevilla

09/16/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo La Coruña
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Sevilla
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
DLCSEV

Deportivo La Coruña

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.74
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.66
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

Sevilla

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-0.83
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

  • 3
    Deportivo La Coruña: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)

  • 4
    Sevilla: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Espanyol: 2 goals (82', 90+1')

  • 5
    Sevilla: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 6
    Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Aubameyang in top form: The attacker leads the offense with 5 goals and 2 assists
  • Rising offensive trend: Sevilla currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Home advantage in the model: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 41% probability
Risk Factors
  • Sevilla weakened: Only 67% of regular starting XI strength available
  • Short recovery time: Deportivo La Coruña with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited head-to-head history in the provided dataset
Overview

Deportivo La Coruña (7th place, 9 points) host Sevilla (6th place, 10 points)

La Liga match at Estadio Abanca-Riazor on September 16, 2026, 7:00 PM

Only one point separates both teams in the standings

Form

Deportivo La Coruña remains unbeaten this season

The team maintains a form of DDWWD across all competitions

Sevilla enters the match with a form of WWLDW

The visitors won their last game 1-0 against Valencia

Statistics

Deportivo scores an average of 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 matches played by the home team this season

Sevilla currently scores 1.6 goals on average, higher than their season average of 1.3

The visitors conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match this season

Key Players

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leads the attack with 5 goals and 2 assists

Luismi Cruz has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist so far

Lorenzo Amatucci controls the midfield with a season rating of 6.95

Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega is Sevilla's top scorer with 1 goal this season

Juan Iglesias solidifies the defense with a rating of 6.95

Jon Guridi recorded 1 goal in midfield this season

Goalkeepers

Leo Román starts in goal for Deportivo, maintaining a season rating of 6.73

Odysseas Vlachodimos guards Sevilla's goal with a season average rating of 6.68

Sevilla has kept 6 clean sheets in their overall statistics

Influences

Home advantage at the Estadio Abanca-Riazor on natural grass

The venue averages 2.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the historic matches at this stadium

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