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Deportivo La Coruña – Sevilla0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo La Coruña
1.41
Total xG
2.56
Sevilla
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo La Coruña | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.74 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Aubameyang in top form: The attacker leads the offense with 5 goals and 2 assists
- Rising offensive trend: Sevilla currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
- Home advantage in the model: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 41% probability
Risks
- Sevilla weakened: Only 67% of regular starting XI strength available
- Short recovery time: Deportivo La Coruña with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited head-to-head history in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo La Coruña41%
Draw30%
Sevilla29%
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruña or draw71%
Sevilla or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sevilla: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)
- Sevilla: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Espanyol: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Sevilla: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Deportivo La Coruña 4-4-2 · Sevilla 4-2-3-1
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
- 7 P. Aubameyang
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 6 L. Agoume
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 19 L. Stassin
Substitutes
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 6 M. Casadó Torras
- 9 Z. Eddahchouri
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 22 B. Ede
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 23 M. do Nascimento Teixeira
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
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