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La Liga

Málaga - Villarreal

09/17/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Málaga
1.4
Total xG
3.1
Villarreal
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MÁLVIL

Málaga

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-0.96
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.58
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.15
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.95
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.09
Gerard Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Georges Mikautadze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolas Pépé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 41% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.57
+0.57
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (16 points lost)

  • 2
    Villarreal: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Málaga: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 4
    Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Villarreal: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

26%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Huge loss of quality for Villarreal: only 42% of regular goal threat is available with Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze, and Nicolas Pépé missing
  • Villarreal dominated possession in recent matches and averaged 6.2 shots on target
  • The mathematical model predicts an away win for Villarreal with a probability of 45%
Risk Factors
  • Villarreal enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Málaga averaged only 1.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
Overview

Málaga (18th place, 3 points) host Villarreal (19th place, 2 points) at the Estadio La Rosaleda

La Liga match on September 17, 2026, 7:30 PM

A direct relegation battle in the lower part of the table

Form

Málaga's current form is LDLDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Villarreal show a form of DLLLL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Both teams are still searching for their first victory of the season

Statistics

Málaga scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.50 per match this season

The hosts' goalscoring has stalled recently with 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.0

Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away game while scoring 1.85

Estadio La Rosaleda saw an average of 1.0 goals per match across 2 games

Key Players

Pablo Martínez stands out in Málaga's midfield with a rating of 7.05

Chupe leads the hosts' attack with one goal this season

Villarreal's Tajon Buchanan averages a rating of 6.81 in midfield with a rising form trend

Renato Veiga stabilizes the visitors' defense with a season rating of 6.94

Goalkeepers

Alfonso Herrero guards the goal for Málaga with a rating of 7.01

Péter Gulácsi played once in goal for Villarreal this season with a strong rating of 8.88

Both goalkeepers aim for greater stability in this crucial match

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio La Rosaleda

The stadium's venue stats point to a low-scoring trend with an average of 1.0 goals per game

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