Match report →
Málaga – Villarreal1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Málaga
1.36
Total xG
3.07
Villarreal
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Málaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.95 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Gerard Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Georges Mikautadze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Pépé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 41% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Huge loss of quality for Villarreal: only 42% of regular goal threat is available with Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze, and Nicolas Pépé missing
- Villarreal dominated possession in recent matches and averaged 6.2 shots on target
- The mathematical model predicts an away win for Villarreal with a probability of 45%
Risks
- Villarreal enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Málaga averaged only 1.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Málaga29%
Draw26%
Villarreal45%
Double chance
Málaga or draw55%
Villarreal or draw71%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (16 points lost)
- Villarreal: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Villarreal: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)
Lineups
Málaga 4-1-4-1 · Villarreal 4-4-2
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 3 A. Freeman
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 24 N. Saliba
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Substitutes
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 2 L. Costa
- 19 N. Pépé
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 18 P. Gueye
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
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