Ligue 1
Auxerre - Strasbourg
03/07/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.7
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Auxerre
Strasbourg
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
28%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Strasbourg: Only 34% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without JoaquĂn Panichelli, Diego Moreira, Guela DouĂ©, ValentĂn Barco
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% win probability for Strasbourg, and 26% for Auxerre
- Strasbourg's season offense (avg 1.67 goals per game) is significantly stronger than Auxerre's offense (avg 0.79 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Auxerre scores only an average of 0.77 goals per home game
- Strasbourg concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Auxerre shows few shots on target (an average of 2.4 per game)
Overview
Auxerre (16th place, 18 points) hosts Strasbourg (8th place, 35 points) at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Ligue 1 match on March 7, 2026, 7:00 PM
Auxerre is battling against relegation, while Strasbourg aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table
Form
Auxerre's form in the last five games is D-D-W-L-D (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This equates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Their last match ended in a draw
Strasbourg's form in their last five games is D-W-D-L-L
This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Strasbourg's last encounter also ended in a draw
Statistics
Auxerre scores an average of 0.79 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals per game
At home, they average 0.77 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded
Auxerre kept 5 clean sheets
Strasbourg scores an average of 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals per game
Away from home, Strasbourg scores an average of 1.73 goals and concedes 2.0 goals
Strasbourg has recorded 7 clean sheets
At the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, an average of 3.0 goals have been scored in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct encounters to date, Auxerre has 1 win and Strasbourg has 4 wins
The goal difference of 2:9 clearly favors Strasbourg
The last meeting on October 29, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for Strasbourg
Strasbourg has dominated recent encounters
Key Players
For Auxerre, Lassine Sinayoko is a key attacker with 6 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.09, though his form is declining
Danny Namaso contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, his form is stable with a rating of 6.80
KĂ©vin Danois (2 goals, 1 assist) shows a rising form curve with an average rating of 7.05
On Strasbourg's side, Martial Godo stands out with 7 goals and 1 assist, his current form is declining (rating 6.93)
Julio Enciso (1 goal, 2 assists) and Ben Chilwell (0 goals, 2 assists) show stable form with ratings of 6.87 and 6.66 respectively
Goalkeepers
Auxerre's goalkeeper, Donovan LĂ©on, has made 22 appearances this season and achieved 5 clean sheets, with an average rating of 6.87
Mike Penders, Strasbourg's goalkeeper, has played in 23 games and achieved 7 clean sheets, his average rating is 6.92
Influences
Auxerre shows a weak offense at home with an average of 0.77 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded
At the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches