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Deportivo Alavés – Valencia0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.57
Total xG
2.50
Valencia
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 4, 16 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 20, 16 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Alavés earned 10 points in their last 5 games while Valencia travel with four consecutive defeats
- Tactical dominance: Alavés averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Valencia's average of 2.0
- Model forecast: Mathematical analysis favors the home team with a calculated win probability of 51%
Risks
- Fatigue: Deportivo Alavés with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away weakness: Valencia concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés51%
Draw28%
Valencia21%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw79%
Valencia or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
2:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (19/8 games, last 30)
- Valencia: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2 · Valencia 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 2 N. Valentini
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 12 J. de Haas
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 9 H. Duro
Substitutes
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 29 I. Hernández Cañas
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 22 A. Martinez
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 10 H. Elliot
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 39 R. Sato
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