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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Valencia

09/15/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Valencia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

2:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
DAVAL

Deportivo Alavés

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.21
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 20, 16 places gap)
+0.11
10% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Valencia

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.55
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.31
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 4, 16 places gap)
-0.16
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.15
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (19/8 games, last 30)

  • 4
    Valencia: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

28%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: Alavés earned 10 points in their last 5 games while Valencia travel with four consecutive defeats
  • Tactical dominance: Alavés averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Valencia's average of 2.0
  • Model forecast: Mathematical analysis favors the home team with a calculated win probability of 51%
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Deportivo Alavés with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Away weakness: Valencia concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game
Overview

Deportivo Alavés host Valencia at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 8:00 PM

Alavés sit in 4th place with 10 points

Valencia occupy the 20th position with only 1 point

The home team enters this clash as the favorite

Form

Alavés show stable form with a WDWWL record

The hosts recorded three wins and one draw in their last five matches

Valencia are in deep trouble with a DLLLL record

The visitors have suffered four consecutive defeats

Statistics

Alavés average 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per season

Valencia average 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

The visitors struggle heavily on the road

Valencia concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Balanced history over the last 4 meetings

Both teams have 1 win each alongside 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Valencia

A total of 5 goals have been scored by each side in these matches

Key Players

Lucas Boyé shines for Alavés with 4 goals and a 7.54 average rating

Ángel Pérez has already contributed 3 assists for the hosts

Guido Rodríguez is a key figure for Valencia with a 7.14 rating

Goalkeepers

Antonio Sivera stars in goal for Alavés with a 7.12 average rating

Stole Dimitrievski defends Valencia's goal with a 6.64 rating

Both goalkeepers have made 5 appearances this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

Matches at this venue historically produce an average of 3.0 goals

Alavés' home advantage is bolstered by Valencia's poor away record

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