Match report →
Real Betis – Getafe1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
1.60
Total xG
2.64
Getafe
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.81 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Cucho Hernández on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Riquelme on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 34% available) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 34% of the goal threat available, without Cucho Hernández and Rodrigo Riquelme
- Real Betis averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- The mathematical prediction calculates a home win probability of 49%
Risks
- Real Betis with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Getafe averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis49%
Draw28%
Getafe23%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw77%
Getafe or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.2 cards per game (34 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Real Betis: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Getafe 4-1-4-1
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 4 Natan
- 16 D. Gómez
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 19 T. Parrott
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 24 Z. Romero
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 16 F. Gracia
- 23 O. Mangala
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 10 M. Satriano
- 20 I. Monzón
Substitutes
- 14 I. Losada Aragunde
- 11 F. García Torres
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 1 J. Letáček
- 19 E. Ünal
- 28 A. Risco
- 32 J. Pérez del Amo
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 30 ?. López
- 31 M. Yassine Hamdoune
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →