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Levante – Athletic Club3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Levante
1.21
Total xG
2.58
Athletic Club
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Levante | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Adrián Dela on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Enzo Bardeli on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Iñaki Williams on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Athletic Club unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws, Levante winless with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Defense: Athletic Club conceded 0.86 goals per game in the league this season, Levante conceded 2 goals per game
- Table: Athletic Club is 11th in the league with 9 points from 7 matches, Levante is 17th with 7 points from 8 matches
Risks
- Home/Away: Levante scored 3.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, Athletic Club scored 0.67 away per game
- Personnel: Athletic Club without O. Sancet Tirapu, who started in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Levante32%
Draw30%
Athletic Club39%
Double chance
Levante or draw61%
Athletic Club or draw68%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.21 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Levante: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Levante: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (90+2', 90+10')
- Athletic Club: 79% of all goals in the second half (11 of 14, last 12 games)
Lineups
Levante 4-4-2 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 2 A. Mandi
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 24 T. Fernández
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
Substitutes
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 21 K. Etta Eyong
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 17 V. García Raja
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 32 A. Primo Hernández
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
- 36 I. Galdin
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 33 C. Imga Mitogo
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