Match report →
FC Barcelona – Racing Santander7 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
1.84
Total xG
3.05
Racing Santander
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | −0.55 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match) | +0.46 | |
| Rising form (4.2 vs 2.7 season average) | +0.46 | |
| Attack strength (1.57x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Fermín López on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Anthony Gordon on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Xavi Espart on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yassir Zabiri on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Iñigo Vicente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 81% of goal output missing (only 11% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 12% of the goal threat available for Racing Santander, with Yassir Zabiri and Iñigo Vicente missing
- FC Barcelona recently averaged 8.8 shots on target per match
- FC Barcelona is currently scoring more frequently with 4.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.7
Risks
- FC Barcelona with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Racing Santander concedes an average of 4.00 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona51%
Draw26%
Racing Santander23%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw77%
Racing Santander or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
7:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.4 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- FC Barcelona: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Racing Santander: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 9 games)
- Racing Santander: 6 of 9 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Racing Santander 4-1-3-2
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 24 E. García
- 15 A. Christensen
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 14 K. Adeyemi
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 16 F. González Molino
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 18 M. Prati
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 14 M. Gueye
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
Substitutes
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 23 J. Koundé
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 7 F. López Marín
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 17 A. Gordon
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 24 J. Belocian
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 31 L. Gómez Rodríguez
- 21 M. Zabiri
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