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La Liga

FC Barcelona - Racing Santander

09/16/2026, 07:30 PM

7 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Racing Santander
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FBRS

FC Barcelona

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.69
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
-0.55
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.55
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match)
+0.46
Rising form (4.2 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.46
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.08
FermĂ­n LĂłpez on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Anthony Gordon on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Xavi Espart  on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Racing Santander

Attack strength (1.57x league average)
-0.15
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Yassir Zabiri on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Iñigo Vicente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
81% of goal output missing (only 11% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.4 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)

  • 4
    FC Barcelona: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Racing Santander: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 9 games)

  • 6
    Racing Santander: 6 of 9 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Only 12% of the goal threat available for Racing Santander, with Yassir Zabiri and Iñigo Vicente missing
  • FC Barcelona recently averaged 8.8 shots on target per match
  • FC Barcelona is currently scoring more frequently with 4.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.7
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Racing Santander concedes an average of 4.00 goals per away match
Overview

FC Barcelona (1st place, 15 points) host Racing Santander (10th place, 7 points) at the Camp Nou

La Liga fixture on September 16, 2026, 9:30 PM

The league leaders face the team in tenth position

Form

FC Barcelona are in perfect shape with 5 consecutive wins

Form: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Racing Santander have recorded mixed results with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Form: DLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

FC Barcelona average 2.50 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per match this season

At home, their defense has been highly reliable, conceding only 0.43 goals per game

Racing Santander average 2.00 goals scored away but also concede an average of 4.00 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

1 direct head-to-head match recorded in the dataset

Their last meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for FC Barcelona on January 15, 2026

Key Players

Lamine Yamal with 6 goals and Raphinha with 6 goals and 3 assists lead the dangerous attack

Pedri orchestrates the midfield with a season rating average of 7.17

On the other side, Julen Agirrezabala stands out with a strong rating of 7.21

Sergio Canales adds stability with 1 goal and a rating of 6.97

Facundo GonzĂĄlez supports the defense with a season average of 6.34

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a guards the goal for FC Barcelona, contributing to the team's 15 clean sheets

Julen Agirrezabala recorded a rating of 7.21 but is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the campaign

Influences

The match will take place at the Camp Nou on natural grass

Stadium history statistics indicate an average of 4.2 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in 3 of the 5 previous fixtures played at this venue

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