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Elche – Real Madrid2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Elche
1.24
Total xG
3.00
Real Madrid
1.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elche | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Fer Niño on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Jude Bellingham on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Modeled favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Real Madrid
- Increased offensive power: Real Madrid scored more goals recently with an average of 2.8 per match compared to their season average of 2.2
- High shot frequency: Real Madrid averaged 9.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
Risks
- High workload: Both teams play this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive instability: Elche currently concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.62
All probabilities
Result
Elche26%
Draw26%
Real Madrid48%
Double chance
Elche or draw52%
Real Madrid or draw74%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Real Madrid: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Real Madrid: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Elche 4-5-1 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 24 A. Osorio
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 15 A. Guler
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 18 T. Lemar
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 2 R. Asencio del Rosario
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 20 B. Silva
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
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