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La Liga

Elche - Real Madrid

09/15/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Elche
1.2
Total xG
3.0
Real Madrid
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ELCRM

Elche

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.48
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.03
Fer Niño on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Real Madrid

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.23
Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap)
+0.12
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Jude Bellingham on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Real Madrid: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 3
    Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Real Madrid: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

26%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Modeled favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Real Madrid
  • Increased offensive power: Real Madrid scored more goals recently with an average of 2.8 per match compared to their season average of 2.2
  • High shot frequency: Real Madrid averaged 9.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams play this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive instability: Elche currently concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.62
Overview

Elche (19th place, 2 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 12 points) at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 8:30 PM

A clear battle between relegation fighters and title contenders

Form

Elche are winless in 5 games with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Last result was a 1-1 draw against Athletic Club

Real Madrid recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Most recently they won 4-1 against Rayo Vallecano

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Elche scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game this season

At home, the team conceded an average of only 0.83 goals per match

Real Madrid scored an average of 2.03 goals and conceded 0.92 goals

Away from home, Madrid scores an average of 2.00 goals per game

Both teams scored in 27 out of 38 matches for Elche

Head-to-Head

Real Madrid leads the head-to-head record with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 matches

The last direct encounter ended 4-1 for Real Madrid

The other match ended in a 2-2 draw

Real Madrid scored a total of 6 goals, while Elche scored 3

Key Players

Elche relies on Gonzalo Villar with a season average rating of 7.02

Tete Morente has already contributed 2 assists this season

Buba Sangaré has already scored 1 goal as a defender

Kylian Mbappé shines for Real Madrid with 6 goals, 1 assist, and an 8.11 rating

Arda GĂŒler impresses with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.88 rating

Vinicius Junior has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Dituro guards the goal for Elche with a season average rating of 6.11 and 8 clean sheets

Thibaut Courtois plays for Real Madrid, carrying a rating of 6.88 and 14 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

The stadium averages 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played here

Elche concedes an average of only 0.83 goals in their own stadium

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