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La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol

09/15/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Rayo Vallecano
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Espanyol
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RVESP

Rayo Vallecano

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.43
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.36
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Full strength squad available

Espanyol

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap)
+0.05
28% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.48
+0.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Espanyol: 3.3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)

  • 2
    Espanyol: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

30%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical offensive bottleneck: Rayo Vallecano currently has only 20% of their typical seasonal goal threat available
  • Rayo Vallecano recently averaged 5.6 shots on target per game using a counter-oriented approach
  • Espanyol is currently scoring more frequently with 1.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Rayo Vallecano has a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
  • Espanyol also enters this match with a brief rest of only 3 days
  • Limited data availability for goalkeepers in this matchup
Overview

Rayo Vallecano (16th place, 4 points) faces Espanyol (8th place, 7 points)

La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 7:00 PM at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Espanyol enters in 8th place, while Rayo seeks crucial points in the lower table

Form

Rayo Vallecano form: LDLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a 1-4 defeat against Real Madrid

Espanyol form: WLLDW

The visitors won their last match 2-0 against Osasuna

Statistics

Rayo averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per season match

Espanyol scores an average of 1.13 goals while conceding 1.45

At home, Rayo Vallecano concedes only 0.68 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Espanyol dominates the history with 3 wins to Rayo Vallecano's 1

The last direct meeting on April 23, 2026, ended 1-0 for Rayo Vallecano

Key Players

Sergio Camello has already scored 6 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Unai LĂłpez contributed 3 assists

Roberto FernĂĄndez has recorded 5 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Emil Audero is in goal for Rayo Vallecano with a 7.2 rating

Rayo Vallecano secured 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque on grass

Venue stats show 3.4 average goals per game and an 80% BTTS rate

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