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Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Rayo Vallecano
1.35
Total xG
2.62
Espanyol
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.43 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 28% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical offensive bottleneck: Rayo Vallecano currently has only 20% of their typical seasonal goal threat available
- Rayo Vallecano recently averaged 5.6 shots on target per game using a counter-oriented approach
- Espanyol is currently scoring more frequently with 1.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
Risks
- Rayo Vallecano has a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- Espanyol also enters this match with a brief rest of only 3 days
- Limited data availability for goalkeepers in this matchup
All probabilities
Result
Rayo Vallecano37%
Draw30%
Espanyol33%
Double chance
Rayo Vallecano or draw67%
Espanyol or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Espanyol: 3.3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Espanyol: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 6 P. Ciss
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
Espanyol
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 5 C. Riedel
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Substitutes
- 3 M. Kumbulla
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 30 A. Molina Colorado
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 31 M. Román
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 24 T. Dolan
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 31 L. Serred
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 16 V. Drkušić
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