Match report →
Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.69
Total xG
2.94
Rayo Vallecano
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Osasuna averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Rayo Vallecano currently scores more frequently with 1.8 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
- Only 11% of Osasuna's seasonal goal production is currently active and available
Risks
- Osasuna has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest before this match
- Osasuna's goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
- Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna46%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano27%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw73%
Rayo Vallecano or draw54%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Osasuna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Osasuna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Osasuna 5-4-1 · Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 14 R. García Santos
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 17 A. Budimir
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 6 P. Ciss
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 18 Á. García Rivera
Substitutes
- 20 R. Del Castillo
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 30 A. Bonel Aicua
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 3 M. Kumbulla
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
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