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La Liga

Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano

09/19/2026, 12:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Rayo Vallecano
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OSARV

Osasuna

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.34
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Full strength squad available

Rayo Vallecano

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.57
+0.57
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 3
    Osasuna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Osasuna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Osasuna averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Rayo Vallecano currently scores more frequently with 1.8 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
  • Only 11% of Osasuna's seasonal goal production is currently active and available
Risk Factors
  • Osasuna has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest before this match
  • Osasuna's goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
  • Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
Overview

Osasuna (13th place, 7 points) hosts Rayo Vallecano (11th place, 7 points) at the Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on September 19, 2026, 2:00 PM

A balanced mid-table encounter is expected

Form

Osasuna shows inconsistent form with three consecutive defeats

Overall form across competitions is WWLLL

Rayo Vallecano presents a more stable run with two wins in their last five matches

Overall form across competitions is DLWLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Osasuna scores an average of 1.16 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match

Rayo Vallecano scores 1.08 goals and concedes 1.16 goals on average

Osasuna is defensively stronger at home, conceding only 0.89 goals per home game

Rayo Vallecano struggles away, conceding 1.81 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Osasuna leads with 2 home wins

The last direct meeting ended in a 3-1 victory

Key Players

Ante Budimir leads Osasuna's attack with 4 goals and a 7.31 rating

Rubén García supports the attack with an average rating of 6.86

Sergio Camello stands out for Rayo Vallecano with 6 goals and a 7.46 rating

Goalkeepers

Aitor FernĂĄndez played once for Osasuna with a 7.09 rating

Emil Audero features for Rayo Vallecano with a 7.01 rating

Osasuna has 7 clean sheets this season, while Rayo Vallecano has kept 12 clean sheets

Influences

Osasuna's home advantage is highlighted by conceding only 0.89 goals per home game

The Estadio El Sadar averages 1.8 goals per match

The model predicts a 46% home win probability and 1.69 expected home goals

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