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La Liga

Espanyol - Elche

09/18/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Elche
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
ESPELC

Espanyol

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.58
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02

Elche

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.66
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Tete Morente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Espanyol: 3.1 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)

  • 2
    Elche: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

  • 3
    Fer Niño: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Away defense weakness: Elche concedes an extremely high average of 2.53 goals per away match and has zero away clean sheets
  • Mathematical favorite: The model calculates a home win probability of 49% for Espanyol and expects 1.58 home goals
  • In-form striker: Roberto Fernández is the main offensive threat for the hosts with 6 goals this season
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams enter this match with a short break of only 3 days since their last fixture
  • Tactical lack of threat: Espanyol averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Elche playmaker missing: Tete Morente (0 goals, 2 assists) is not included in the squad for the visitors
Overview

Espanyol hosts Elche at the RCDE Stadium

La Liga match on September 18, 2026, 9:00 PM

Espanyol is in 8th place with 7 points

Elche is bottom of the table in 20th place with 2 points

The hosts aim to keep pace with the upper half while Elche desperately needs points

Form

Espanyol shows a form of LLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Elche's form curve stands at LLLDL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Both teams lost their respective last match

Statistics

Espanyol scores an average of 1.13 goals and concedes 1.45 goals per match

In home matches, the average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded

Elche scores an average of 1.29 goals while conceding 1.5 goals per match

Away from home, Elche concedes an extremely high average of 2.53 goals and has recorded 0 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Espanyol and 1 draw

The goal ratio stands at 3:2 in favor of Espanyol

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Roberto Fernández leads Espanyol with 6 goals and an average rating of 7.45

Javi Hernández has contributed 4 assists with a rating of 6.8

For Elche, Fer Niño stands out with 3 goals and a rating of 6.95

Lucas Cepeda prepared 2 goals with a rating of 6.88

Thomas Lemar scored 1 goal with an average rating of 6.88

Goalkeepers

Matías Dituro plays in goal for Elche with an average rating of 6.2

Espanyol recorded 10 clean sheets this season, while Elche kept 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the RCDE Stadium

In the last 5 matches at this venue, an average of 2.4 goals per match was scored

The BTTS rate at the stadium stands at 60% (3 out of 5 matches)

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