Match report →
Espanyol – Elche1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Espanyol
1.58
Total xG
2.61
Elche
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Espanyol | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 8, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 20, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Tete Morente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Away defense weakness: Elche concedes an extremely high average of 2.53 goals per away match and has zero away clean sheets
- Mathematical favorite: The model calculates a home win probability of 49% for Espanyol and expects 1.58 home goals
- In-form striker: Roberto Fernández is the main offensive threat for the hosts with 6 goals this season
Risks
- High workload: Both teams enter this match with a short break of only 3 days since their last fixture
- Tactical lack of threat: Espanyol averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Elche playmaker missing: Tete Morente (0 goals, 2 assists) is not included in the squad for the visitors
All probabilities
Result
Espanyol49%
Draw28%
Elche23%
Double chance
Espanyol or draw77%
Elche or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Espanyol: 3.1 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Elche: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Fer Niño: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Espanyol 4-2-3-1 · Elche 4-3-3
Espanyol
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 18 T. Lemar
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
- 11 G. Karabinaite
Substitutes
- 5 C. Riedel
- 24 T. Dolan
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 31 L. Serred
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 24 A. Osorio
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