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Atlético de Madrid – Real Madrid2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.71
Total xG
3.41
Real Madrid
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | −0.04 | |
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical focus: Atlético recently averaged 6.0 shots on target with 58% possession in past games
- Real Madrid proved highly clinical averaging 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a very tight derby with 1.71 expected home goals and 1.70 expected away goals
Risks
- Low goal threat: According to the data only 23% of Atlético de Madrid's seasonal goal production is available
- Limited offensive power: Real Madrid's squad features only 19% of their usual goal production
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid38%
Draw25%
Real Madrid37%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw63%
Real Madrid or draw62%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Real Madrid: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 21 C. Romero
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 K. Lee
- 15 J. David
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 1 J. Musso
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 2 R. Asencio del Rosario
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 20 B. Silva
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
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