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La Liga

Atlético de Madrid - Real Madrid

09/20/2026, 02:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético de Madrid
1.7
Total xG
3.4
Real Madrid
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
ADMRM

Atlético de Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Attack strength (1.45x league average)
-0.04
Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+0.40
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Atlético de Madrid: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')

  • 4
    Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Real Madrid: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

25%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Tactical focus: Atlético recently averaged 6.0 shots on target with 58% possession in past games
  • Real Madrid proved highly clinical averaging 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a very tight derby with 1.71 expected home goals and 1.70 expected away goals
Risk Factors
  • Low goal threat: According to the data only 23% of Atlético de Madrid's seasonal goal production is available
  • Limited offensive power: Real Madrid's squad features only 19% of their usual goal production
Overview

Atlético de Madrid hosts Real Madrid for the derby

The home team sits in 4th place with 13 points

The visitors are in 2nd place with 15 points

Prestigious La Liga clash on September 20, 2026, 4:15 PM

A battle to keep pace at the top of the table

Form

Atlético de Madrid enters with form WLLWW

Two consecutive wins achieved recently

Real Madrid travels with form WLWWW

The visitors secured three consecutive wins lately

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético de Madrid averages 1.63 goals scored per match this season

Their defense concedes an average of only 1.16 goals

Real Madrid shines with an average of 2.03 goals scored per game

The visitors concede just 0.92 goals per match on average

In home games Atlético concedes only 0.71 goals on average

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches both teams have 2 wins each and 1 draw

The last encounter ended 2-3 in favor of Real Madrid on March 22, 2026

The recent head-to-head history shows an even balance of power

Goal difference stands at 10-8 in favor of Atlético de Madrid

Key Players

Álex Baena with 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.40

Kang-in Lee records 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.45

Jonathan David contributes 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.67

Kylian Mbappé impresses with 7 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 8.17

Jude Bellingham stands at 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.84

Vinicius Junior contributed 1 goal and 3 assists with a rating of 7.17 so far

Goalkeepers

Jan Oblak has recorded 14 clean sheets for Atlético de Madrid

Thibaut Courtois has also secured 14 clean sheets

Oblak holds an average rating of 6.78

Courtois features a rating of 6.81

Influences

At Riyadh Air Metropolitano games average 2.4 goals

The rate of both teams scoring at this venue stands at 20%

The match will be played on natural grass

Atlético benefits from home defensive strength conceding only 0.71 goals on average

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