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Celta de Vigo – Racing Santander5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.21
Total xG
2.79
Racing Santander
1.59
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.84 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 45% probability for an away win for Racing Santander
- Drastic threat reduction: Celta de Vigo has only 4% of active goal production available due to crucial absences
- Offensive discrepancy: Racing Santander scores consistently with 1.8 goals per game, while Celta's recent scoring average dropped to 0.5
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams played only 3 days ago and face a very short recovery window
- Severe away defense weakness: Racing Santander concedes a worrying average of 5.5 goals per away game
- Low chance creation: Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo27%
Draw28%
Racing Santander45%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw55%
Racing Santander or draw73%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (12/8 games, last 30)
- Racing Santander: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 10 games)
- Celta de Vigo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Celta de Vigo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Racing Santander: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
- Racing Santander: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 10 games)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Racing Santander 4-1-4-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 8 M. Román González
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 16 H. Sotos
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 19 W. Swedberg
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 24 J. Belocian
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 21 M. Zabiri
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 7 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 2 C. Starfelt
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 18 M. Prati
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 31 L. Gómez Rodríguez
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
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