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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Racing Santander

09/19/2026, 04:30 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Racing Santander
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CDVRS

Celta de Vigo

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.84
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Full strength squad available

Racing Santander

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+0.59
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.41
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (12/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Racing Santander: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 10 games)

  • 3
    Celta de Vigo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 4
    Celta de Vigo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 5
    Racing Santander: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)

  • 6
    Racing Santander: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 10 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

28%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 45% probability for an away win for Racing Santander
  • Drastic threat reduction: Celta de Vigo has only 4% of active goal production available due to crucial absences
  • Offensive discrepancy: Racing Santander scores consistently with 1.8 goals per game, while Celta's recent scoring average dropped to 0.5
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams played only 3 days ago and face a very short recovery window
  • Severe away defense weakness: Racing Santander concedes a worrying average of 5.5 goals per away game
  • Low chance creation: Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Celta de Vigo (18th place, 4 points) host Racing Santander (12th place, 7 points) at Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

La Liga match on September 19, 2026, 6:30 PM

The home side is desperately searching for their first win of the season

Form

Celta de Vigo are winless in their last five matches with a form of LDDDL

Racing Santander show an inconsistent run of LWLWL with two wins

Both teams suffered defeats in their last match

Statistics

Celta de Vigo average 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded

Racing Santander average 1.83 goals scored but struggle with 2.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home Racing conceded 11 goals in just two matches

Head-to-Head

Only one previous direct encounter on January 5, 2025

Racing Santander won that match at home with a tight 3-2 scoreline

Key Players

For Celta de Vigo key figures are Ferran JutglĂ  with 1 goal

Miguel RomĂĄn contributed 1 assist and Hugo GonzĂĄlez added 2 assists

Racing Santander rely on Yassir Zabiri with 6 goals, Iñigo Vicente with 2 assists and Pablo García with 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Ionuț Radu of Celta averages a 6.93 rating in goal

He faces Racing's Julen Agirrezabala with a 7.07 rating and 0 clean sheets

Celta de Vigo registered 10 clean sheets overall

Influences

The game is played on natural grass at Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

Stadium statistics show 2.6 average goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches here

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