Ligue 1
Toulouse - Olympique Marseille
03/07/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
9%1:2
8%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
30%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- According to mathematical analysis, Olympique Marseille has a higher win probability of around 38% compared to Toulouse (31%)
- Olympique Marseille's offense is significantly stronger with an average of 2.13 goals per game compared to Toulouse (1.38 goals per game)
- Toulouse shows a negative form trend with only 0 wins and 2 draws in their last five games and stagnating goal production (0.5 goals recently)
Risk Factors
- Olympique Marseille concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
- A draw is calculated by the model with a 30% probability, indicating a close match
Overview
Toulouse (11th place, 31 points) host Olympique Marseille (4th place, 43 points) at the Stadium de Toulouse. This Ligue 1 match is scheduled for March 7, 2026, 9:05 PM. Marseille is battling for a top spot in the league, while Toulouse is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Toulouse's form across all competitions is DLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. Olympique Marseille's form is DLDLW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
Statistics
Toulouse averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded. Olympique Marseille is offensively stronger with 2.13 goals per game, but more vulnerable with 1.38 goals conceded. Away, Marseille scores 2.11 goals but concedes 2.00 goals. For Toulouse, both teams scored in 10 of 24 games (BTTS), and 11 games had over 2.5 goals. For Marseille, there were BTTS in 12 of 24 games and 16 matches with over 2.5 goals. At the Stadium de Toulouse, the average total goals was 2.4, with 40% BTTS and 40% over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse has not secured a win against Olympique Marseille, who recorded 2 victories, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The goal difference is 7:10 in favor of Olympique Marseille. The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.
Key Players
In Toulouse's starting lineup, Yann Gboho (6 goals, 4 assists, stable form), Aron Dønnum (3 goals, 4 assists, stable form), and Cristian Cåceres Jr. (1 goal, 0 assists, rising form) are important. Santiago Hidalgo (4G/3A) and Charlie Cresswell (3G/2A) are not in the squad, impacting goal threat. For Olympique Marseille, Mason Greenwood (14 goals, 4 assists, stable form), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (8 goals, 5 assists, stable form), and Igor Paixão (5 goals, 3 assists, declining form) are key players.
Goalkeepers
Toulouse's goalkeeper, Guillaume Restes, played 24 games this season and kept 8 clean sheets. For Olympique Marseille, GerĂłnimo Rulli was in goal for 20 games and achieved 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Toulouse averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per home game. Olympique Marseille averages 2.11 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded away. The Stadium de Toulouse averages 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and over 2.5 goals in 40% of games.