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Deportivo La Coruña – Real Betis1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo La Coruña
1.30
Total xG
2.68
Real Betis
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo La Coruña | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.92 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.79 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luismi Cruz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 9% available) | ||
| Troy Parrott on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Riquelme on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Only 9% of Deportivo La Coruña's goal threat is available, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Luismi Cruz missing
- Real Betis averaged a strong 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Real Betis enters on a strong streak of 4 consecutive wins and is favored by the model with a 38% win probability
Risks
- Limited data availability for head-to-head records
- Real Betis has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Deportivo La Coruña has failed to keep a single clean sheet this season
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo La Coruña33%
Draw29%
Real Betis38%
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruña or draw62%
Real Betis or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo La Coruña: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)
- Real Betis: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 21)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Deportivo La Coruña 4-4-2 · Real Betis 4-3-3
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 22 B. Ede
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 6 M. Casadó Torras
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 4 Natan
- 11 F. García Torres
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
Substitutes
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 7 P. Aubameyang
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 9 Z. Eddahchouri
- 5 D. Barcia Rama
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 3 A. Comas Freixas
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 16 D. Gómez
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 19 T. Parrott
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
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