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La Liga

Villarreal - Levante

09/20/2026, 04:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Villarreal
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Levante
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VILLEV

Villarreal

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Gerard Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Georges Mikautadze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolas Pépé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Levante

Rising form (2.3 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.28
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.51
+0.51
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (16 points lost)

  • 2
    Villarreal: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 24)

  • 4
    Levante: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Tactical edge: Villarreal averaged 62.2% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, dominating gameplay
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 47% probability for a home win with 1.74 expected goals for Villarreal
  • Attacking trend: Levante is scoring more frequently in recent games (2.3) compared to their season average (1.4)
Risk Factors
  • Severe squad depletion: Only 15% of Levante's seasonal goal production is currently available on the pitch
  • Fatigue factor for the hosts: Villarreal has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Fragile away defense: Levante concedes a high average of 1.94 goals per away game
Overview

Villarreal hosts Levante at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica

La Liga match on September 20, 2026, 6:30 PM

A bottom-table clash between 15th and 16th place

Both teams are tied on 5 points and desperately need a win to escape the relegation zone

Form

Villarreal form: LLLLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses

Levante form: LDWDL

1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses

Villarreal recently ended a four-match losing streak with a 3-1 away win against MĂĄlaga

Levante lost their last match 2-4 against FC Barcelona

Statistics

Villarreal scores an average of 1.89 goals per game while conceding 1.21

At home, Villarreal is particularly dangerous, averaging 1.92 goals per game

Levante concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game while scoring 1.24

Head-to-Head

Villarreal dominates the head-to-head history with 2 wins from 2 matches

The last meeting ended in a clear 5-1 home victory for Villarreal on May 2, 2026

The total goal ratio in direct duels is 6-1 in favor of the hosts

Key Players

Pape Gueye has contributed 3 goals from midfield with an average rating of 7.27

Alberto Moleiro has registered 1 goal and 1 assist for Villarreal

Roger Brugué shines for Levante with 3 goals in 4 appearances

Goalkeepers

PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi starts for Villarreal with an average rating of 7.59

Mathew Ryan guards the Levante goal with an average rating of 7.17

The home team has kept 8 clean sheets this season, compared to 9 clean sheets for the visitors

Influences

An average of 5.0 goals per game has been scored in the last 5 matches at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica

Villarreal has had significantly less rest, with only 3 days since their last match compared to Levante's 7 days

Villarreal's strong home goal statistics bolster their stadium advantage

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