Match report →
Villarreal – Levante3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.74
Total xG
3.02
Levante
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Rising form (2.3 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Gerard Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Georges Mikautadze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Pépé on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical edge: Villarreal averaged 62.2% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, dominating gameplay
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 47% probability for a home win with 1.74 expected goals for Villarreal
- Attacking trend: Levante is scoring more frequently in recent games (2.3) compared to their season average (1.4)
Risks
- Severe squad depletion: Only 15% of Levante's seasonal goal production is currently available on the pitch
- Fatigue factor for the hosts: Villarreal has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Fragile away defense: Levante concedes a high average of 1.94 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal47%
Draw26%
Levante27%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw73%
Levante or draw53%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (16 points lost)
- Villarreal: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 24)
- Levante: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-2-3-1 · Levante 4-3-3
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 3 A. Freeman
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 18 P. Gueye
- 24 N. Saliba
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 2 A. Mandi
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 24 T. Fernández
Substitutes
- 2 L. Costa
- 19 N. Pépé
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 8 J. Foyth
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 17 V. García Raja
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
- 34 M. U. Domingo
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