Match report →
Sevilla – FC Barcelona1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sevilla
1.42
Total xG
3.14
FC Barcelona
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sevilla | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (5.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | |
| Rising form (5.2 vs 2.7 season average) | +0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 42% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Dani Olmo not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Xavi Espart not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Possession dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 8.6 shots on target and 72% possession in recent matches
- Missing squad options: Dani Olmo (0 goals, 3 assists) and Xavi Espart (1 goal, 2 assists) were not nominated for the starting eleven
- Superb season performance: FC Barcelona arrives with a perfect record of 6 wins from 6 league games and 28 goals scored
Risks
- Sevilla with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- FC Barcelona also with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Vulnerability on the road: FC Barcelona conceded an average of 1.73 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Sevilla30%
Draw26%
FC Barcelona43%
Double chance
Sevilla or draw57%
FC Barcelona or draw70%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.6 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- Sevilla: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Barcelona: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sevilla 4-2-3-1 · FC Barcelona 4-3-3
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 12 A. Sangante
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 6 L. Agoume
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 9 R. Ure
FC Barcelona
- 25 D. Livaković
- 24 E. García
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 15 A. Christensen
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 17 A. Gordon
Substitutes
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 23 M. do Nascimento Teixeira
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 27 N. Guillén Peguero
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 23 J. Koundé
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 35 I. Rodríguez Medina
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →