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La Liga

Sevilla - FC Barcelona

09/19/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.4
Total xG
3.1
FC Barcelona
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SEVFB

Sevilla

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
42% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

FC Barcelona

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (5.2 goals/match)
+0.74
Rising form (5.2 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.74
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.24
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.07
Dani Olmo not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Xavi Espart  not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 4
    FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.6 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)

  • 5
    Sevilla: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 6
    FC Barcelona: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Possession dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 8.6 shots on target and 72% possession in recent matches
  • Missing squad options: Dani Olmo (0 goals, 3 assists) and Xavi Espart (1 goal, 2 assists) were not nominated for the starting eleven
  • Superb season performance: FC Barcelona arrives with a perfect record of 6 wins from 6 league games and 28 goals scored
Risk Factors
  • Sevilla with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • FC Barcelona also with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Vulnerability on the road: FC Barcelona conceded an average of 1.73 goals per away game this season
Overview

Sevilla (5th place, 13 points) host FC Barcelona (1st place, 18 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

La Liga match on September 19, 2026, 9:00 PM

Top-tier clash between the undefeated league leaders and the hosts

Form

Sevilla in form WLDWW over the last five matches

The home side recently secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

FC Barcelona arrive with a perfect record of WWWWW

The visitors secured 5 wins in a row

Statistics

Sevilla score an average of 1.21 goals and concede 1.58 goals per game this season

Their home record shows an average of 1.20 scored and 1.25 conceded goals

FC Barcelona shine with 2.50 scored and only 0.95 conceded goals per match

In away matches, the Catalans' offense increases to an average of 2.53 goals scored per game

Head-to-Head

Lack of balance in the last 5 head-to-head matches

FC Barcelona dominate with 4 wins, while Sevilla only recorded 1 win

The goal ratio stands at 12 to 20 goals against Sevilla

The last encounter on March 15, 2026 ended in a clear 5-2 away win for Barcelona

Key Players

Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega with 2 goals this season and Lucien Agoumé with an average rating of 7.06

Juan Iglesias already contributed 1 goal from defence this season

Raphinha impresses with 9 goals and 3 assists this campaign

Lamine Yamal shines with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Fermín López contributed 4 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Odysseas Vlachodimos starts in goal for Sevilla with an average rating of 6.78

Dominik Livakovic will protect the goal for the visitors in this match

Sevilla recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while FC Barcelona kept a clean sheet 15 times

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per game at this stadium

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the recent home matches

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