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La Liga

Valencia - Real Sociedad

09/20/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Real Sociedad
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VALRS

Valencia

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.44
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.26
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
100% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Real Sociedad

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.54
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.52
+0.52
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 4
    Real Sociedad: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Real Sociedad averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Valencia's 2.2
  • Attack in crisis: Valencia's goal production has stalled with only 0.4 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Head-to-head edge: Valencia won the last direct duel 4:3 and secured 2 victories out of 4 encounters
Risk Factors
  • Physical fatigue: Real Sociedad enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Valencia injury crisis: A total of 7 players are sidelined, including M. Diakhaby and U. Sadiq Mesbah
  • Squad impact for Real Sociedad: Only 10% of their seasonal goal production is available in the current lineup
Overview

Valencia (19th place, 4 points) host Real Sociedad (14th place, 7 points) at Estadio de Mestalla

La Liga match on September 20, 2026, 9:00 PM

A crucial encounter in the lower tier of the standings

Form

Valencia enters with a form trend of LLLLW

Recently recording 1 win and 4 losses

Real Sociedad comes with a form curve of WDWLL

The visitors secured 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Valencia averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded this season

In home games their average stands at 1.23 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Real Sociedad averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

The visitors concede an average of 2.14 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Valencia secured 2 wins while Real Sociedad won 1 match alongside 1 draw

Goal record of 6:7 from Valencia's perspective

The last meeting ended with a 4:3 victory for Valencia

Key Players

Guido RodrĂ­guez in midfield has contributed 2 goals with a rating of 7.09

Arnaut Danjuma leads the attack with an average rating of 6.63

Javi Guerra operates in midfield with 1 assist and a 6.65 rating

Luka Sucic leads the visitors with 2 goals and a rating of 7.06

Sergio GĂłmez stands strong in defence with 1 goal and a 7.02 rating

Job Ochieng impacts the attack with 1 goal and 2 assists alongside a 6.68 rating

Goalkeepers

Stole Dimitrievski starts in goal for Valencia with a rating of 6.79

The goalkeeper kept 9 clean sheets in 38 matches this season

Álex Remiro guards the net for Real Sociedad with a rating of 7.06

The keeper achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Played on grass at Estadio de Mestalla

Valencia's home strength is shown by 27 goals scored at home compared to 19 away

Historically matches at this stadium average 2.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of home matches at Estadio de Mestalla

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