Match report →
Valencia – Real Sociedad2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.40
Total xG
2.51
Real Sociedad
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Real Sociedad averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Valencia's 2.2
- Attack in crisis: Valencia's goal production has stalled with only 0.4 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- Head-to-head edge: Valencia won the last direct duel 4:3 and secured 2 victories out of 4 encounters
Risks
- Physical fatigue: Real Sociedad enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Valencia injury crisis: A total of 7 players are sidelined, including M. Diakhaby and U. Sadiq Mesbah
- Squad impact for Real Sociedad: Only 10% of their seasonal goal production is available in the current lineup
All probabilities
Result
Valencia42%
Draw30%
Real Sociedad28%
Double chance
Valencia or draw72%
Real Sociedad or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)
- Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Real Sociedad: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Valencia 4-4-2 · Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 12 J. de Haas
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 9 H. Duro
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 17 S. Gómez
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 24 L. Sučić
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 22 A. Martinez
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 10 H. Elliot
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 39 R. Sato
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 19 M. Sarr
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
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