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La Liga

Getafe - Málaga

09/20/2026, 12:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Getafe
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Málaga
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
GETMÁL

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.76
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.55
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

Málaga

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.63
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.07
44% of goal output missing (only 33% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Getafe: 3.4 cards per game (36 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Málaga: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Low squad goal threat for Getafe: Only 9% of regular goal production is available through active players
  • Weakened starting XI for Málaga: Only 33% of regular goal production is available through active players
  • Defensive approach: Getafe averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Heavy fatigue factor for Getafe with only 3 days since their last match
  • Málaga also faces a short rest window of only 3 days since their last match
  • Limited data quality for head-to-head history due to missing records in the dataset
Overview

Getafe host Málaga at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM

A relegation battle between 17th and 20th place in La Liga

Getafe has 5 points while Málaga sits at the bottom with 3 points

Form

Getafe's form is LLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

With 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, Getafe's goal production is stagnant at a recent average of 0.6 goals

Málaga shows a form of DLDDL with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Málaga's goal production is also slow with a recent average of 0.8 goals

Statistics

Getafe scores 0.84 goals per game on average and concedes 1.00 goals

Málaga has scored 4 goals and conceded 3 in 2 recorded matches

At home, Getafe scores an average of 0.86 goals and concedes 0.76 goals

Key Players

Martín Satriano scored 1 goal in 6 appearances for his side

Ramón Terrats has 1 goal and an average rating of 7.22

Enes Ünal contributed 1 goal in 6 matches

Carlos Dotor scored 1 goal for his side

Rafita Garrido made 6 appearances this season

Alfonso Herrero has a season rating of 6.86

Goalkeepers

David Soria in Getafe's goal has a rating of 7.11 and 12 clean sheets

Alfonso Herrero in Málaga's goal has a rating of 6.86 and 0 clean sheets

Influences

Getafe plays on grass at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

The venue averages 2.0 goals per match

The both teams to score rate at this stadium is 60%

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