Match report →
Getafe – Málaga1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.34
Total xG
2.40
Málaga
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.76 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.07 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 33% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low squad goal threat for Getafe: Only 9% of regular goal production is available through active players
- Weakened starting XI for Málaga: Only 33% of regular goal production is available through active players
- Defensive approach: Getafe averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Heavy fatigue factor for Getafe with only 3 days since their last match
- Málaga also faces a short rest window of only 3 days since their last match
- Limited data quality for head-to-head history due to missing records in the dataset
All probabilities
Result
Getafe41%
Draw31%
Málaga28%
Double chance
Getafe or draw72%
Málaga or draw59%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.4 cards per game (36 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Getafe 4-5-1 · Málaga 4-1-4-1
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 24 Z. Romero
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 20 I. Monzón
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 16 F. Gracia
- 10 M. Satriano
- 19 E. Ünal
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 23 O. Mangala
- 28 A. Risco
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 31 M. Yassine Hamdoune
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 30 A. Céspedes Rubio
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