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La Liga

Athletic Club - Deportivo Alavés

09/19/2026, 02:15 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Deportivo Alavés
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ACDA

Athletic Club

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Deportivo Alavés

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.13
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.02
Ángel Pérez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.57
+0.57
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Athletic Club: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Only 16% of Athletic Club's goal-scoring threat is currently active in the squad
  • Deportivo Alavés recently averaged 4.6 shots on target with 42% possession
  • The mathematical model predicts a 40% home win probability compared to 32% for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Limited offensive threat for Athletic Club with only 16% activeGoalsShare
  • Deportivo Alavés shows a vulnerable defense conceding 1.94 goals per away game
  • Ángel Pérez is missing for the visitors leaving only 74% of assists available in the squad
Overview

Athletic Club host Deportivo Alavés at San Mamés Barria

La Liga match on September 19, 2026, 4:15 PM

The eighth-placed team faces the sixth-placed team

The home side currently has 7 points, while the visitors have 10 points

Form

Athletic Club shows a form curve of LLWWD

Most recently they recorded a 1-1 draw against Elche

Deportivo Alavés has the form DWWLL

The visitors suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Statistics

Athletic Club averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game this season

Deportivo Alavés averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

In Athletic's home games, they averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded

Alavés concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club won 2, with 1 draw and 1 win for Deportivo Alavés

The last meeting ended in a 4-2 win for Athletic Club

In total, 6 goals were scored for the home team and 4 for the visitors in these matches

Key Players

Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals this season with an average rating of 7.15

Iñaki Williams recorded 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 matches

Lucas Boyé is the top scorer for the visitors with 4 goals

Goalkeepers

Unai Simón plays in goal for Athletic Club with a rating of 7.19

Antonio Sivera guards the Deportivo Alavés goal with an average rating of 7.08

Simón played in 5 games this season, Sivera in 6 matches

Influences

The match takes place at the San Mamés Barria stadium

In the previous 5 home games, an average of 2.4 goals per match were scored

The model predicts a 60% probability for Both teams to score

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