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Athletic Club – Deportivo Alavés0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Athletic Club
1.53
Total xG
2.88
Deportivo Alavés
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletic Club | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Ángel Pérez on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 16% of Athletic Club's goal-scoring threat is currently active in the squad
- Deportivo Alavés recently averaged 4.6 shots on target with 42% possession
- The mathematical model predicts a 40% home win probability compared to 32% for the visitors
Risks
- Limited offensive threat for Athletic Club with only 16% activeGoalsShare
- Deportivo Alavés shows a vulnerable defense conceding 1.94 goals per away game
- Ángel Pérez is missing for the visitors leaving only 74% of assists available in the squad
All probabilities
Result
Athletic Club40%
Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés32%
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw68%
Deportivo Alavés or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Athletic Club: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Alavés 5-3-2
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 16 V. Koski
- 2 N. Valentini
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 15 L. Boyé
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
Substitutes
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 29 I. Hernández Cañas
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
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