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La Liga10/11/2026, 04:30 PM

Real Betis – Osasuna5 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Real Betis
1.63
Total xG
2.70
Osasuna
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorReal BetisOsasuna
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.46+0.46
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)−0.19
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)−0.12
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.05
Full strength squad available
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Tactical advantage: Real Betis averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Osasuna's 3.0
  • Defensive gap: Osasuna concedes avg 2.36 goals per away match, while Real Betis concedes only 0.86 at home
  • Model projection: Mathematical analysis assigns a 49% home win probability for Real Betis with 1.63 expected goals

Risks

  • Osasuna conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match in their last 5 games
  • Osasuna averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches

All probabilities

Result
Real Betis49%
Draw28%
Osasuna23%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw77%
Osasuna or draw51%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
5:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
  2. Real Betis: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 19)
  3. Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  4. Osasuna: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Lineups

Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Osasuna 4-4-2

Real Betis
  • 1 Á. VallĂ©s Rosa
  • 2 H. BellerĂ­n Moruno
  • 3 D. Llorente RĂ­os
  • 4 Natan
  • 11 F. GarcĂ­a Torres
  • 8 P. Fornals Malla
  • 21 M. Roca JunquĂ©
  • 17 R. Riquelme Reche
  • 22 F. AlarcĂłn SuĂĄrez
  • 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  • 9 J. HernĂĄndez SuĂĄrez
Osasuna
  • 13 A. FernĂĄndez Abarisketa
  • 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
  • 24 A. Catena MarugĂĄn
  • 35 U. Santos Mañeru
  • 23 A. Bretones Cruz
  • 14 R. GarcĂ­a Santos
  • 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
  • 6 L. TorrĂł Marset
  • 16 M. GĂłmez Bordonado
  • 17 A. Budimir
  • 9 R. GarcĂ­a de Haro
Substitutes
  • 13 D. Conde Alcolado
  • 25 D. Ceballos FernĂĄndez
  • 16 D. GĂłmez
  • 20 G. Lo Celso
  • 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
  • 7 A. dos Santos
  • 18 N. Deossa SuĂĄrez
  • 5 M. Bartra Aregall
  • 19 T. Parrott
  • 27 J. Morante AntĂșnez
  • 15 Á. Fidalgo FernĂĄndez
  • 6 F. Bernal Cruz
  • 15 D. Rico Salguero
  • 29 A. Osambela Larraya
  • 19 V. Rosier
  • 1 S. Herrera PirĂłn
  • 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
  • 22 F. Boyomos
  • 21 J. Dubasin
  • 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
  • 17 D. Hill
  • 48 R. Yeboah

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