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La Liga10/12/2026, 07:00 PM

Levante – Sevilla3 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Levante
1.45
Total xG
2.56
Sevilla
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorLevanteSevilla
Attack weakness (0.57x league average)−0.84
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.57
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.55+0.55
Rising form (2.7 vs 1.4 season average)+0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap)−0.22
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.19
Attack strength (1.35x league average)−0.10
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)−0.09
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap)+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.06
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)+0.05
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.04
Enzo Bardeli on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Squad impact: Sevilla only have 20% of their season goal production available in the starting XI
  • Form trend: Levante increased their scoring rate recently to 2.7 goals per match compared to their 1.4 season average
  • Model prediction: The mathematical calculation gives Levante a 44% win probability and 73% for home win or draw

Risks

  • Away defensive weakness: Sevilla concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Match frequency: Both teams play their first competitive match after a break of over 20 days
  • Table position: Levante sit in 18th place in the relegation zone

All probabilities

Result
Levante44%
Draw29%
Sevilla27%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Levante or draw73%
Sevilla or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Sevilla: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  2. Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
  3. Levante: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
  4. Sevilla: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Espanyol: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
  5. Levante: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Lineups

Levante 4-4-2 · Sevilla 4-2-3-1

Levante
  • 13 M. Ryan
  • 22 J. Toljan
  • 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
  • 3 I. Ndukwe
  • 23 M. SĂĄnchez De La Peña
  • 17 V. GarcĂ­a Raja
  • 20 O. Rey Erenas
  • 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
  • 7 R. BruguĂ© AyguadĂ©
  • 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
  • 11 Y. Musuayi
Sevilla
  • 1 O. Vlachodimos
  • 2 J. Iglesias SĂĄnchez
  • 5 A. LĂłpez Gallo
  • 4 Kike Salas
  • 17 G. Suazo Urbina
  • 8 G. Kochorashvili
  • 6 L. Agoume
  • 30 M. Sierra Ortega
  • 24 Y. Fofana
  • 20 F. Sanches Correia
  • 9 R. Ure
Substitutes
  • 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
  • 1 P. Cuñat Campos
  • 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
  • 24 T. FernĂĄndez
  • 2 A. Mandi
  • 27 F. CortĂ©s Gracia
  • 6 D. Requena SĂĄnchez
  • 10 P. Ratkov
  • 29 N. PĂ©rez GĂłmez
  • 18 E. Bardeli
  • 12 A. Sangante
  • 10 G. FernĂĄndez Castellano
  • 16 I. Romero Bernal
  • 21 C. Ejuke
  • 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
  • 7 A. GonzĂĄlez MartĂ­nez
  • 22 JosĂ© Ángel Carmona
  • 11 R. Vargas
  • 14 M. Bueno SebastiĂĄn
  • 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
  • 13 F. GonzĂĄlez PĂ©rez
  • 3 J. Del Romo

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