DumbleScore
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La Liga10/10/2026, 04:30 PM

FC Barcelona – Getafe3 : 0

Why the model thinks so

FC Barcelona
2.42
Total xG
3.30
Getafe
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFC BarcelonaGetafe
Attack strength (1.76x league average)+0.97
Attack weakness (0.41x league average)−0.91
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.8 goals/match)+0.62
Rising form (4.8 vs 2.7 season average)+0.62
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)−0.60
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.57
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.53+0.53
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.38
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)−0.11
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)−0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)−0.10
Raphinha not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists)
FermĂ­n LĂłpez on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Pedri on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
MartĂ­n Satriano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Strong home record (3.9 vs 2.7 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Rising attack form: FC Barcelona averaged 4.8 goals per match recently compared to their 2.7 season average
  • Tactical dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 72% possession and 8.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Getafe's 3.2 shots on target
  • Model prediction: The mathematical calculation indicates a 70% home win probability with 2.42 expected home goals

Risks

  • Squad availability risk: Raphinha, FermĂ­n LĂłpez, and Pedri are absent, leaving only 56% of regular goal threat available
  • Away defensive leakage: Getafe concede an average of 1.29 goals per away match

All probabilities

Result
FC Barcelona70%
Draw19%
Getafe11%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw89%
Getafe or draw30%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%

Most likely scores

2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
8%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
  2. Getafe: 3.6 cards per game (38 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
  3. FC Barcelona: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  4. FC Barcelona: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  5. FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
  6. Getafe: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Lineups

FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Getafe 5-4-1

FC Barcelona
  • 1 J. Pons
  • 23 J. KoundĂ©
  • 24 E. GarcĂ­a
  • 18 G. MartĂ­n Langreo
  • 12 X. Espart Font
  • 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
  • 16 Rodri
  • 6 Pablo Gaviria
  • 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
  • 9 G. de Jesus
  • 17 A. Gordon
Getafe
  • 13 D. Soria SolĂ­s
  • 17 F. FemenĂ­a Far
  • 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
  • 8 N. Gudelj
  • 24 Z. Romero
  • 22 J. Mojica Palacio
  • 21 A. GarcĂ­a Robledo
  • 16 F. Gracia
  • 6 M. MartĂ­n Rielves
  • 11 R. Terrats Espacio
  • 20 I. MonzĂłn
Substitutes
  • 14 K. Adeyemi
  • 25 D. Livaković
  • 13 W. Szczęsny
  • 3 A. Balde MartĂ­nez
  • 5 P. CubarsĂ­ Paredes
  • 22 M. Bernal Casas
  • 7 F. LĂłpez MarĂ­n
  • 8 P. LĂłpez
  • 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
  • 29 H. Abdel Karim
  • 4 B. PĂ©rez
  • 9 B. Mayoral Moya
  • 5 A. Abqar
  • 1 J. Letáček
  • 3 D. CordĂłn Mancha
  • 23 O. Mangala
  • 10 M. Satriano
  • 19 E. Ünal
  • 28 A. Risco
  • 26 J. Valou
  • 35 D. Ferrer MartĂ­nez
  • 4 S. Sazonov
  • 15 J. Boselli Graf
  • 34 J. MartĂ­nez GirĂłn

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