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Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais - Paris

03/08/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Olympique Lyonnais
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Paris
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
OLPAR

Olympique Lyonnais

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.15
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Pavel Sulc not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Afonso Moreira not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Corentin Tolisso on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Endrick on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ainsley Maitland-Niles not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Noah Nartey on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

Paris

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.72
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Ilan Kebbal not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists)
Maxime Lopez not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Alimami Gory on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a home win for Olympique Lyonnais with 56% probability
  • Olympique Lyonnais is suffering from significant squad issues, with only 40% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Lyon displays a strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.58 goals per game at Groupama Stadium
Risk Factors
  • Paris is also missing key players like Ilan Kebbal (8G/4A), Maxime Lopez (0G/3A), and Alimami Gory (1G/1A), reducing their active goal threat to 66%
  • According to advanced statistics, both teams show a negative form trend in their goal production
Overview

Olympique Lyonnais (4th place, 45 points) host Paris (14th place, 26 points) at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1 on March 8, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lyon aims to solidify its top table position, while Paris is fighting against relegation

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Olympique Lyonnais' form in the last five matches is WWWLL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

The last two games ended in a loss

Paris' form in the last five matches is DDLDW (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

The last game was won

Statistics

Olympique Lyonnais scores an average of 1.63 goals and concedes 1.08 goals per game across the season

Lyon recorded 12 clean sheets and 11 games with both teams scoring (BTTS)

Paris scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season

Paris had 6 clean sheets and 14 BTTS games

At home, Lyon scores an average of 1.58 goals and concedes only 0.58 goals

Away, Paris scores 1.18 goals and concedes 1.64 goals

Groupama Stadium averages 2.6 goals per game, with 40% BTTS and Over 2.5 matches

Head-to-Head

In their only head-to-head encounter on October 29, 2025, Olympique Lyonnais and Paris drew 3-3

The head-to-head record is even, with 3 goals scored by each team

Key Players

For Olympique Lyonnais, midfielder Tyler Morton (2 goals, 2 assists, Ø 7.16 rating) is notable

Defenders Moussa Niakhaté (2 assists, Ø 6.98 rating) and Abner (3 goals, Ø 6.76 rating) are also important players

For Paris, defenders Moustapha Mbow (1 assist, Ø 6.92 rating, rising form) and attackers Jonathan Ikoné (1 season goal, 1 goal in last 3 games) and Jean-Philippe Krasso (2 goals, 2 assists) are key

Goalkeepers

Dominik Greif is the goalkeeper for Olympique Lyonnais (1 assist, Ø 6.94 rating in 20 appearances)

Lyon has 12 clean sheets this season

Kevin Trapp is the goalkeeper for Paris (Ø 6.89 rating in 13 appearances)

Paris achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Olympique Lyonnais has a home advantage with only 0.58 average goals conceded and 1.58 goals scored per home game

Groupama Stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Paris concedes an average of 1.64 goals per away game

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