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Deportivo Alavés – Atlético de Madrid1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.43
Total xG
2.74
Atlético de Madrid
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Mariano Díaz on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Álex Baena on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kang-in Lee on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dávid Hancko on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form advantage: Atlético de Madrid have won 3 consecutive matches
- Tactical pressure: Atlético de Madrid averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Model signal: The statistical model calculates a 67% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Mariano Díaz is missing, leaving only 69% goal threat available for Deportivo Alavés
- Away defensive vulnerability: Atlético de Madrid concede an average of 1.93 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés38%
Draw29%
Atlético de Madrid33%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw67%
Atlético de Madrid or draw62%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2 · Atlético de Madrid 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 2 N. Valentini
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 21 C. Romero
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 11 A. Lookman
- 15 J. David
Substitutes
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 16 V. Koski
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 17 D. Hancko
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 1 J. Musso
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 7 K. Lee
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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