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La Liga10/11/2026, 07:00 PM

Racing Santander – Valencia2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Racing Santander
1.40
Total xG
2.58
Valencia
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorRacing SantanderValencia
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)−0.86
Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)+0.58
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.57
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.48+0.48
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)−0.15
Attack weakness (0.64x league average)−0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.02
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.01
100% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Racing Santander averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Valencia's 2.6
  • Racing Santander consistently score at home averaging 1.75 goals per home game
  • The predictive model calculates a home win probability of 40%

Risks

  • Racing Santander have conceded an average of 3.00 goals per match this season
  • Valencia averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Valencia face offensive absences including U. Sadiq Mesbah and S. CanĂłs Tenes

All probabilities

Result
Racing Santander40%
Draw30%
Valencia30%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Racing Santander or draw70%
Valencia or draw60%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
2:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Valencia: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
  2. Racing Santander: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 11 games)
  3. Racing Santander: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
  4. Racing Santander: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
  5. Racing Santander: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 11 games)

Lineups

Racing Santander 4-1-4-1 · Valencia 5-4-1

Racing Santander
  • 13 J. Agirrezabala
  • 2 A. Mantilla PĂ©rez
  • 5 P. RamĂłn Parra
  • 24 J. Belocian
  • 17 J. Salinas Viadero
  • 18 M. Prati
  • 20 S. Canales Madrazo
  • 23 I. MartĂ­n NĂșñez
  • 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
  • 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
  • 21 M. Zabiri
Valencia
  • 1 S. Dimitrievski
  • 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
  • 4 M. Diakhaby
  • 18 J. GarcĂ­a VayĂĄ
  • 12 J. de Haas
  • 14 J. GayĂĄ Peña
  • 19 D. Raba AntolĂ­
  • 23 F. Ugrinic
  • 2 G. RodrĂ­guez
  • 8 J. Guerra Moreno
  • 9 H. Duro
Substitutes
  • 15 P. GarcĂ­a FernĂĄndez
  • 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
  • 9 J. Arana GĂłmez
  • 12 A. Villalibre Molina
  • 16 F. GonzĂĄlez Molino
  • 11 A. MartĂ­n GarcĂ­a
  • 4 J. Hernando Riol
  • 14 M. Gueye
  • 7 G. Guliashvili
  • 19 I. Luque Sierra
  • 3 A. MartĂ­n Caricol
  • 31 L. GĂłmez RodrĂ­guez
  • 22 A. Martinez
  • 7 A. Danjuma
  • 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
  • 5 C. TĂĄrrega Requeni
  • 36 I. CĂłrdoba SĂĄnchez
  • 10 H. Elliot
  • 27 D. Otorbi
  • 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
  • 25 K. van Oevelen
  • 15 A. Dieng
  • 39 R. Sato
  • 33 Aaron Mayol

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