DumbleScore
Match report →
La Liga10/10/2026, 07:00 PM

Real Madrid – Villarreal1 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Real Madrid
1.95
Total xG
3.66
Villarreal
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorReal MadridVillarreal
Attack strength (1.7x league average)+0.68
Attack strength (1.57x league average)+0.61
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.53+0.53
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.35
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean−0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.14
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)−0.06
Vinicius Junior on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Squad impact shortfall: Villarreal have only 17% of their seasonal goal production available in the starting lineup
  • Tactical offensive threat: Real Madrid averaged 6.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 71% probability for both teams to score

Risks

  • Away defensive weakness: Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
  • Injury concerns for Real Madrid: 5 players are unavailable due to injury or suspension

All probabilities

Result
Real Madrid43%
Draw24%
Villarreal33%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw67%
Villarreal or draw57%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%

Most likely scores

2:1
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
1:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Real Madrid: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
  2. Villarreal: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (16 points lost)
  3. Real Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  4. Villarreal: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 22)
  5. Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  6. Villarreal: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)

Lineups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Villarreal 4-3-3

Real Madrid
  • 1 T. Courtois
  • 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
  • 16 I. KonatĂ©
  • 22 A. RĂŒdiger
  • 18 A. Carreras
  • 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
  • 14 A. TchouamĂ©ni
  • 15 A. Guler
  • 5 J. Bellingham
  • 25 Y. Diomande
  • 10 K. MbappĂ©
Villarreal
  • 25 P. GulĂĄcsi
  • 3 A. Freeman
  • 6 P. Navarro Badenes
  • 12 R. Palma Veiga
  • 23 S. Cardona BermĂșdez
  • 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
  • 8 J. Foyth
  • 18 P. Gueye
  • 11 Ilias Chakkour
  • 22 A. PĂ©rez GutiĂ©rrez
  • 10 A. Moleiro GonzĂĄlez
Substitutes
  • 19 C. EspĂ­ Escrihuela
  • 6 E. Camavinga
  • 7 V. JĂșnior
  • 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
  • 13 A. Lunin
  • 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
  • 20 B. Silva
  • 17 M. Cucurella
  • 24 D. Dumfries
  • 26 S. Mestre SĂĄnchez
  • 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
  • 2 L. Costa
  • 9 G. Mikautadze
  • 21 T. Oluwaseyi
  • 1 L. Reis JĂșnior
  • 15 ?. Mouriño GonzĂĄlez
  • 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
  • 20 C. Romero Serrano
  • 28 J. GaitĂĄn Diaz
  • 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
  • 24 N. Saliba
  • 16 Carlos MaciĂ 
  • 5 A. Diatta

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →