Match report →
Real Sociedad – Deportivo La Coruña3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.30
Total xG
2.67
Deportivo La Coruña
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −1.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| Attack strength (1.7x league average) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model prediction: The calculation model evaluates a 37% chance for an away win and 66% for X2 (away win or draw)
- Attacking metric: Real Sociedad averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Away team shots: Deportivo La Coruña averaged 4.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Squad impact: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is injured for Deportivo La Coruña, leaving only 61% of total goal threat available
- Defensive weakness: Real Sociedad conceded an average of 1.61 goals per match this season
- Lack of clean sheets: Deportivo La Coruña have recorded 0 clean sheets across 7 season matches
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad34%
Draw29%
Deportivo La Coruña37%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw63%
Deportivo La Coruña or draw66%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo La Coruña: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 19)
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)
- Real Sociedad: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Real Sociedad: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-4-2 · Deportivo La Coruña 4-2-3-1
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 24 L. Sučić
- 23 A. Zakharyan
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 22 B. Ede
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitutes
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 33 K. Sánchez Rey
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 37 N. Carrillo
- 31 M. Ochoa Ruiz
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