Match report →
Elche – Celta de Vigo0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Elche
1.47
Total xG
2.50
Celta de Vigo
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elche | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.37x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Miguel Román not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hugo González on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical Home Squad Impact: Elche only have 20% of their seasonal goal production available
- Mathematical Signal: The calculation model shows a 75% probability for a home win or draw
- Attacking Activity: Elche averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Personnel losses for Celta de Vigo: Miguel Román and Hugo González are missing, leaving only 70% of goal threat available
- Scoring struggles: Elche failed to score in 5 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Elche46%
Draw29%
Celta de Vigo25%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Elche or draw75%
Celta de Vigo or draw54%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (13/8 games, last 30)
- Elche: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Celta de Vigo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Celta de Vigo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Elche 5-3-2 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-3
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 18 T. Lemar
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
Substitutes
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 15 K. Lomónaco
- 24 A. Osorio
- 30 Á. Padilla
- 4 A. Faye
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 7 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 16 H. Sotos
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
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