Match report →
Málaga – Espanyol1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Málaga
1.35
Total xG
2.78
Espanyol
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Málaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 37% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Espanyol's attacking threat is heavily depleted with only 21% of their active goal share available due to injuries
- Málaga's offensive struggles: The hosts averaged just 0.5 goals and 2.2 shots on target per match in recent outings
- Tight predictions: The model suggests a close matchup with a 34% probability for a home win and 38% for an away win
Risks
- Depleted attack: Only 21% of Espanyol's season goal production is active due to squad availability issues
- Winless run: Málaga remain without a single victory after 7 league games (0 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
- Wet conditions: Light rain on the grass pitch at La Rosaleda could complicate passing and ball control
All probabilities
Result
Málaga34%
Draw28%
Espanyol38%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Málaga or draw62%
Espanyol or draw66%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Espanyol: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Málaga 4-1-4-1 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 5 C. Riedel
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 24 T. Dolan
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Substitutes
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 7 H. Abaida
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 30 A. Céspedes Rubio
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 31 L. Serred
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 16 V. Drkušić
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